000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201607
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Apr 20 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 07N95W to 05N110W. The
ITCZ continues from 05N110W to 07N130W. Scattered moderaate
convection is evident within 120 nm of the trough and ITCZ
between 85W and 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

1032 mb high pressure is centered near 36N130W, with a surface 
ridge extending southeastward to offshore SW Mexico. Fresh to 
locally strong NW winds prevail off Baja California north of Cabo
San Lazaro and moderate to fresh are elsewhere off Baja Sur. 
Seas to 12 ft in NW swell prevail across the near shore waters N 
of San Lazaro. Light breezes and slight seas are evident over the
Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 4 to 7 ft 
seas are noted elsewhere north of 20N. Light breezes and moderate
combined seas in a mix of NW and SW swell persist off southern 
Mexico. 

For the forecast, the high pressure northwest of the area will
drift NW through Sat to produce a modest decrease in winds  
across the Baja waters, then shift W through Mon leading to 
improving marine conditions. A new round of large NW swell is 
expected to move into the waters off Baja California north of 
Punta Eugenia late Sat through Sun. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting moderate to 
fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and moderate
to locally fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama 
extending to southeast of the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle 
breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined seas are 5 to 6 ft 
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo, and mostly 3 to 5 ft 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pressure pattern N of the region will
gradually weaken through the weekend, leading to diminishing gap
winds across the Papagayo region and the Gulf of Panama through
Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas
in SW swell will prevail. Light to gentle SW to W winds are
generally expected to prevail across the regional waters through
the weekend.
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge is anchored by 1030 mb high pressure 
centered near 36N129W extending SE to offshore of SW Mexico.  
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north 
of 07N and west of 115W. Gentle to moderate breezes are evident 
elsewhere. Combined seas are 8 to 12 ft in NW to N swell north 
of 20N and east of 130W, 6 to 9 ft elsewhere west of 120W, and 4
to 6 ft primarily in SW swell over the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, winds and seas over the tropical Pacific west
of 125W will gradually diminish through early Sat as high 
pressure north of the area shifts N. Large NW swell impacting 
the waters E of 130W will diminish through Sat before briefly 
increasing again Sat through Sun. High pressure will then shift 
westward late Sat through Mon and lead to a modest decrease in 
trade winds west of 125W, with seas gradually subsiding to 7-8 ft
by late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish further across the 
basin through Mon.

$$
Christensen