000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192101
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Apr 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 03N105W. The ITCZ 
continues from 03N105W to 05N115W to beyond 00N125W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 83W and 
92W, from 03N to 05N between 96W and 98W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front moving into Baja California Norte has largely
dissipated. 1028 mb high pressure is centered near 34N130W, with
a surface ridge extending to Cabo Corrientes. This ridge is 
building in the wake of the dissipated front, allowing fresh NW 
winds off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro. 8 to 10 ft 
combined seas accompany the winds, with an added component of NW 
swell. Light breezes and slight seas are evident over the Gulf of
California. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are 
noted elsewhere north of 20N. Light breezes and moderate combined
seas in a mix of NW and SW swell persist off southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, high pressure west of the area will support 
fresh to occasionally strong NW winds off Baja California north 
of Cabo San Lazaro through early Thu. Seas are expected to peak 
near 11 ft with NW swell offshore Baja Norte this morning. The 
high pressure will drift westward and slowly weaken late Thu 
through Sun leading to a dimishing trend in winds and seas across
the regional waters. Looking ahead, a new round of large NW 
swell is expected to move into the waters off Baja California 
north of Punta Eugenia late Sat through Sun. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the region is supporting occasionally
fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. A late 
morning scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong gap 
winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. This was in part supported by 
local diurnal influences and has likely diminished slightly into 
the afternoon. This pattern is also supporting moderate to 
locally fresh northerly winds over the Gulf of Panama just 
southeast of the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle breezes are 
noted elsewhere. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft downstream of the 
Gulf of Papagayo, and mostly 3 to 4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to 
occasionally strong gap winds pulses into Thu across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua. Moderate winds in the Gulf 
of Panama will briefly pulse to fresh tonight. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle variable winds and moderate seas in SW swell will 
prevail. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge is anchored by 1028 mb high pressure
centered near 34N130W. This pattern is supporting moderate to 
fresh trade winds north of 05N and west of 115W. Gentle to 
moderate breezes are evident elsewhere. Combined wave heights are
8 to 11 ft north of 25N and east of 125W, 6 to 8 ft elsewhere 
west of 115W, and 4 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell over the 
remainder of the area.

For the forecast, winds and seas over the tropical Pacific west
of 125W will gradually diminish through early Sat as high 
pressure weakens north of the area. New NW swell in excess of 8 
ft moving into the waters north of 25N tonight will spread 
southward through Thu, with highest seas occurring east of 130W.
For late Fri through Sun, high pressure will shift westward and 
lead to a modest decrease in trade winds west of 125W, with seas 
gradually subsiding to 7-8 ft by late Sun. Winds and seas will
diminish across the basin through Mon.

$$
Christensen