000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191539
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Apr 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 03N100W. The ITCZ 
extends from 03N100W to 05N115W to beyond 00N125W. Another ITCZ 
segment is farther south, extending from 02S85W to beyond 
03.4S110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 
08N between 85W and 92W, from 02N to 04N between 95W and 105W,
and from 03S to 01S between 85W and 90W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front moving into Baja California Norte has largely
dissipated. 1027 mb high pressure is centered near 34N134W, with
a surface ridge extending through Los Cabos. This ridge is
building in the wake of the dissipated front, allowing fresh to
strong NW winds off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro.
8 to 10 ft combined seas accompany the winds, with an added
component of NW swell. Light breezes and slight seas are evident
over the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 5 to
7 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 20N. Light breezes and
moderate combined seas in a mix of NW and SW swell persist off
southern Mexico. 

For the forecast, high pressure west of the area will support 
fresh to occasionally strong NW winds off Baja California north 
of Cabo San Lazaro through early Thu. Seas are expected to peak 
near 11 ft with NW swell offshore Baja Norte this morning. The 
high pressure will drift westward and slowly weaken late Thu 
through Sun leading to a dimishing trend in winds and seas across
the regional waters. Looking ahead, a new round of large NW 
swell is expected to move into the waters off Baja California 
north of Punta Eugenia late Sat through Sun. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The base of an upper level trough across Central America is 
supporting small clusters of showers and thunderstorms from 
just offshore of northwest Panama to about 90 nm southwest of 
southeastern Costa Rica. High pressure north of the area is 
supporting fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of 
Papagayo earlier this morning, that have since diminished. This
pattern is also supporting moderate to locally fresh northerly 
winds over the Gulf of Panama just southeast of the Azuero 
Peninsula. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined 
seas are 4 to 6 ft downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo, and mostly
3 to 4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the pattern will support fresh to occasionally
strong gap winds pulses into Thu across the Gulf of Papagayo and
the coast of Nicaragua. Moderate winds in the Gulf of Panama 
will briefly pulse to fresh tonight. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
variable winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail. A weak
pressure pattern will develop across the western Caribbean Fri 
night through the weekend and lead to gentle winds across most of
the local area. 
 
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge is anchored by 1027 mb high pressure
centered near 34N141W. This pattern is supporting moderate to  
fresh trade winds north of 05N and west of 115W. Gentle to
moderate breezes are evident elsewhere. Combined wave heights are
8 to 11 ft north of 25N and east of 125W, 6 to 8 ft elsewhere
west of 115W, and 4 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell over the
remainder of the area.

For the forecast, winds and seas over the tropical Pacific west
of 125W will gradually diminish through early Sat as high 
pressure weakens north of the area. New NNW swell in excess of 8
ft moving into the waters north of 25N tonight will spread 
southward through Thu, with highest seas occurring this morning
east of 130W. For late Fri through Sun, high pressure will shift
westward and lead to a modest decrease in trade winds west of 
125W, with seas gradually subsiding to 7-8 ft by late Sun.

$$
Christensen