000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180326 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Apr 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N74.5W to 02N82W to 07.5N89W to 02.5N105W. ITCZ continues from 02.5N105W to low pres 1010 mb near 07N120W then to 01N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 07.5N between 83.5W and 94W, from 04N to 10N between 114W and 125W, and S of 00.5S between 116W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Winds continue to diminish in strength and areal coverage across the Tehuantepec this evening, as high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Northerly winds are assumed to have diminished below 30 kt in recent hours, with seas still 7-8 ft and extending well downstream to near 12.5N96W. Winds and seas will gradually diminish further overnight, and fall below 20 kt around sunrise Tue. Farther north, a broad surface ridge extends from high pressure 1028 mb high pressure centered near 40N150W southeastward to just S of the Revillagigedo Islands. Afternoon scatterometer satellite data and ship observations indicate moderate to fresh NW winds winds off Baja California, between the ridge and lower pressure over north-central Mexico. Seas remain at 5 to 7 ft across this area, except 7 to 8 ft across the NW waters well offshore of Baja Norte. Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere off Mexico. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in open waters. For the forecast, the high pressure over the eastern Pacific will support fresh to occasionally strong NW winds off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro through late Thu, with combined seas reaching to 10 ft in NW swell. The high pressure NW of the region will weaken and drift northward Fri through Sat leading to a dimishing trend in winds and seas across the area waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south to southeast winds prevail across the waters of the Gulf of Papagayo region, becoming NW across the waters of Nicaragua. NE gap winds are expected to develop across the area later tonight. Seas across the area are 4-5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds have begun to spill into the near shore waters inside the Gulf of Panama, where seas are 3 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and seas 4-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to occasionally strong gap winds pulses through mid week across the Gulf of Papagayo and waters of southern Nicaragua. Moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will briefly pulse to fresh Tue and Wed nights. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Afternoon scatterometer satellite data showed fresh to strong trade winds from 03N to 16N west of 120W, between a trough in the deep tropics near 120W and the subtropical ridge north of 20N. Recent altimeter satellite data confirmed combined seas in this area are 7 to 9 ft mixed NE and NW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are active near the surface trough, between 115W and 124W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere to the N, where seas of 6-7 ft prevail. For the forecast, winds and seas over the tropical Pacific west of 125W will gradually diminish through mid week as high pressure weakens north of the area. New longer period NW swell in excess of 8 ft will move into the waters north of 20N Tue through Wed, with highest seas reaching 10 ft near Guadalupe Island. For Thu through Sat, combined seas of 8 to 9 ft will persist north of 25N and east of 125W to near the Baja California coast. Seas associated with fresh trade winds mixed with primarily NW swell will persist from 05N to 20N west of 125W. $$ Stripling