000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150303
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Apr 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Updated

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 10N74.5W to
05.5N80W to 07N85W to 09N104W, where the ITCZ begins. The ITCZ 
then continues southwestward to 05N119W to 01S140W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 01S between 
81W and 93W, S of 03S between 88W and 107W, and from 02N to 11N 
between 96W and 111W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds diminished over the northern Gulf of California today and 
are 10 kt or less this evening with seas of 2-4 ft. A broad 
surface ridge extends from high pressure well NW of the area to 
SW of Cabo Corrientes along 107W. The associated pressure 
gradient is producing moderate to fresh northerly winds across
the full length of Baja California waters extending southward to
offshore Cabo Corrientes and adjacent area. Localized areas of
strong winds are likely near shore of Cabo San Lucas and from Cabo
Corrientes to Lazaro Cardenas. Seas offshore Baja California 
have subsided to 7-9 ft in NW swell north of Punta Eugenia and to
5-8 ft south of Punta Eugenia. Elsewhere from the Tehuantepec 
region to the entrance to Acapulco, gentle west to northwest 
winds prevail along with seas of 3-5 ft. 

For the forecast, the NW swell across the Baja offshore waters 
will continue to subside through Sat night. The gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds over the northern Gulf of California will 
become fresh S to SW winds Mon night, then diminish to gentle 
speeds by Tue afternoon. NW to N winds are expected to increase 
to fresh to strong N of Punta Eugenia starting Mon night, with 
winds more pronounced at strong speeds Wed and Wed night as the 
high pressure strengthens some while shifting eastward. This 
will also allow for moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the 
offshore waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia to
remain at fresh speeds Tue night through Wed night. Fresh to 
strong NW winds are forecast to continues along and just 
offshore the coast of Cabo Corrientes from Saturday afternoon 
through early Sun evening. The next gap wind event in the 
Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Sun night with gale-
force winds briefly expected to develop Mon morning. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed NW and SW 
swell will prevail. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong winds are commenced across the Gulf of 
Papagayo region this evening, extending offshore to 87W, where 
seas are 5-6 ft. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds have also
increased in the Gulf of Panama and extend south to near 07.5N, 
with seas of 4-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds 
and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure is expected to persist
across the region to the N through the weekend. This pattern will
produce fresh easterly winds in the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing to
strong at night and into the early morning hours through Wed 
night. However, seas are expected to remain below 8 ft. Moderate 
to fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through
Sat night with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable
winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening 1026 mb high pressure is centered near 34N150W this
evening and extends a ridge SE to offshore of Cabo Corrientes,
Mexico. The ridge dominates most of the forecast waters north of
10N and west of about 110W. Afternoon ASCAT data over this area 
showed gentle to moderate NE to E winds, with an area of fresh E 
winds located from 11N to 20N W of 131W. Seas within the area of 
gentle to moderate winds are 5-7 ft, and seas within the area of 
fresh winds are 6-9 ft in mixed N to NE swell. In the NE part of 
the area, seas of 7-10 ft due to NW swell continue this evening N
of 24N and west of the Baja California Peninsula to 131W. Light 
to gentle winds are present south of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will dominate the 
northern forecast waters over the next several days. The 
associated pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh
trade winds over the west-central waters. The NW swell over 
the NE part of the area will subside through Sat allowing for 
seas to subside below 8 ft. An elongated zone of seas 8 to 9 ft 
in mixed N and E swell is expected to develop W of 112W from 08N
to 16N Sat night through Sun night, increasing to 8 to 10 ft 
Mon.

$$
Stripling