000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150022 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0022 UTC Sat Apr 15 2023 Updated ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Updated A surface trough extends from low pressure of 1007 mb over NW Colombia near 10N75W westward to across central Panama and southwestward to 05N90W, and continuing to 06N100W to 07N106W and to 06N112W, where the ITCZ begins, The ITCZ continues southwestward to 02N124W to just below the Equator at 130W and to 01S140W. Increasing scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 81W-90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm south of the trough between 95W-101W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 105W- 110W, within 60 nm north of the trough between 100W-105W and also between 121W-154W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are over the northern Gulf of California along with seas of 2-3 ft. A broad surface ridge extends from high pressure well NW of the area to near Cabo Corrientes. The associated pressure gradient earlier was bringing fresh to strong northerly winds offshore of most of Baja California, however, these winds have diminished to gentle to moderate speeds today, with some winds to fresh speeds near the coast of the peninsula between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo San Lazaro. Seas offshore Baja California have subsided to 6-9 ft in NW swell north of Punta Eugenia and to 5-7 ft south of Punta Eugenia. Elsewhere from the Tehuantepec region to the entrance to the Gulf of California, light to gentle west to northwest winds prevail along with seas of 3-6 ft. For the forecast, the NW swell north of Punta Eugenia will continue to subside through Sat night. The gentle to moderate S to SW winds over the northern Gulf of California will become fresh S to SW winds Mon night, then diminish to gentle speeds by Tue afternoon. NW to N winds are expected to increase to fresh to strong N of Punta Eugenia starting Mon night, with winds more pronounced at strong speeds Wed and Wed night as the high pressure that is well NW of the area strengthens some while shifting eastward. This will also allow for moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the offshore waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia to be at mainly fresh speeds Tue night through Wed night. Fresh to strong NW winds are forecast along and just offshore the coast of Cabo Corrientes from Saturday afternoon through early Sun evening. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Sun night with gale- force winds potentially developing Mon morning. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed NW and SW swell will prevail. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR The latest ASCAT data pass over the Gulf of Papagayo region revealed fresh NE winds there, with the northern extension of the winds reaching to the offshore waters of southern Nicaragua. The western extension of these winds reaches downstream to near 89W along with seas of 5-6 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama and extend south to near 06N, with seas of 4-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure is expected to persist across the region to the N through the weekend. This pattern will produce fresh easterly winds in the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing to strong at night and into the early morning hours through Wed night. However, seas are expected to remain below 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through Sat night with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad high pressure ridge dominates most of the forecast waters north of 15N and west of about 115W. Latest ASCAT data passes over this part of the area showed gentle to moderate NE to E winds. An area of fresh E winds is located from 12N to 20N W of 131W. Seas within the area of gentle to moderate winds are 5-7 ft, and seas within the area of fresh winds are 6-8 ft in mixed N to NE swell. In the NE part of the area, seas of 7-10 ft due to a long-period NW swell are present N of 24N and west of the Baja California Peninsula to 131W. The highest of these seas is confined to N of 28N. Light to gentle winds are present south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, strong high pressure will dominate the northern forecast waters over the next several days. The associated pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the west-central waters. The NW swell over the NE part of the area will decay through Sat allowing for these seas to subside below 8 ft. $$ Aguirre