000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141540
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Apr 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 09N74W to 05N88W 
to 06N104W to 05N113W. The ITCZ begins near 05N113W and continues
to the Equator at 126W, then to 02S131W and to 03S140W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm north of the 
trough between 95W-101W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is seen from 01N to 05N between 121W-132W, and within 
60 nm south of the trough between 103W-108W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 80W-85W, 
and also within 30 nm north of the trough between 80W-86W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak low pressure prevails across the far northern Gulf, where 
overnight scatterometer data clearly showed fresh to strong SW 
winds prevailing between 29N and 31N. Seas early were up to 8 ft,
but have recently lowered to just below 8 ft. A broad surface 
ridge extends from high pressure well NW of the area to near Cabo
Corrientes. The associated pressure gradient is producing strong
northerly winds offshore of most of California, becoming 
moderate to locally fresh NW winds offshore of Baja Norte to N of
Cabo San Lazaro. Seas across this are 8-12 ft N of Punta 
Eugenia. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are across the 
remainder Baja California Sur offshore waters where seas of 5-8 
ft prevail. Elsewhere from the Tehuantepec region to the entrance
to the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail along 
with seas of 3-6 ft. 

For the forecast, seas generated by strong winds offshore 
California will continue to propagate across the waters of Baja
California through tonight while slowly subsiding to a peak of 
9 ft and to 8 ft across the waters of Baja Sur. Seas will
continue to subside through the weekend. The fresh to strong 
SW winds over the northern Gulf of California will become 
light and variable in the afternoon. The next gap wind event in 
the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Sun night with gale- 
force winds potentially developing Mon morning. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed NW and SW 
swell will prevail.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and downstream to near 89W tonight, where seas are 5 to 
6 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted in the Gulf of 
Panama and extend south to near 06N, with seas 4 to 5 ft. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and slight seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure is expected to persist
across the region to the N through the weekend. This pattern will
produce fresh easterly winds in the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing to
strong at night and into the early morning hours through Tue 
night. However, seas are expected to remain below 8 ft. Moderate
to fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama 
through Sat night with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
variable winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell will 
prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad high pressure ridge dominates most of the forecast 
waters north of 15N and west of about 115W. Overnight 
scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh NE to E winds in this
region while altimeter data showed seas of 5-8 ft in NW swell, 
except N of 24N and west of the Baja California Peninsula to 130W
where N-NW swell supports seas of 8-14 ft, with the highest of 
the seas north of 28N. Light to gentle winds are present south of
the ITCZ.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will dominate the 
northern forecast waters over the next several days. The 
associated pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh trade
winds over the west-central waters. NW swell will continue to 
propagate across the NE waters, with seas of 8-11 ft dominating 
most of the area N of 23N between 115W-134W early this morning.
This swell will gradually decay through Sat allowing for these 
seas to subside below 8 ft.

$$
Aguirre