000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140911
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Apr 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 09N73W to 05.5N82W
to 05N112W. The ITCZ begins near 05N112W to 05N118.5W to 01S130W
to 02.5S140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted 
from 04N to 07.5N between 80.5W and 90W, from 02N to 09N between
90W and 111W, and from 00.5S to 04N between 121W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary has drifted eastward across the northern Gulf
of California and into NW Mexico along about 112W, where it has
dissipated. Weak low pressure prevails across the far northern 
Gulf, where recent scatterometer data showed fresh to strong SW 
winds prevailing between 29N and 31N. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in this
area. A broad surface ridge extends from high pressure well NW 
of the area to near Cabo Corrientes tonight. The associated 
pressure gradient is producing strong northerly winds offshore 
of most of California, becoming moderate to locally fresh NW 
winds offshore of Baja Norte to N of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas across
this are 8 to 13 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate NW to
N winds are across the remainder Baja California Sur offshore 
waters where seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail. Elsewhere from the 
Tehuantepec region to the entrance to the Gulf of California, 
light to gentle winds prevail along with seas 3 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, seas generated by strong winds offshore 
California will continue to propagate across the waters of Baja
California tonight, with seas N of Punta Eugenia remaining at 8
to 12 ft, and 6 to 8 ft across the waters of Baja Sur. Seas will
begin to subside Fri, then quickly diminish Fri night through
Sat. Fresh to locally strong SW winds will persist in the 
northern Gulf of California through Fri morning with seas 
peaking near 8 ft. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec 
region is forecast to begin Sun night with gale-force winds 
potentially developing Mon morning. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas in mixed NW and SW swell will prevail.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and downstream to near 88W tonight, where seas are 5 to
6 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted in the Gulf of 
Panama and extend to 06N, with seas 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle variable winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure is expected to persist
across the region to the N through the weekend. This pattern will
produce fresh easterly winds in the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing to
strong at night and into the early morning hours through Tue 
night. However seas are expected to remain below 8 ft. Moderate 
to fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through
Sat night with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable
winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad high pressure ridge dominates most of the forecast 
waters N of 15N and W of 115W. Recent scatterometer data showed 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds in this region while altimeter 
data showed seas of 5 to 8 ft in NW swell, except N of 24N and W 
of the Baja California Peninsula to 130W where N-NW swell 
supports seas of 8 to 14 ft. Light to gentle winds are S of the 
ITCZ.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will dominate the 
northern forecast waters over the next several days. The 
associated pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh trade
winds over the west-central waters. NW swell will continue to 
propagate across the NE waters, with seas of 8 to 11 dominating 
most of the area N of 25N between 116W and 130W through Fri 
morning. Seas are then forecast to subside below 8 ft by Sat 
morning.

$$
Stripling