285 
AXPZ20 KNHC 140251
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Apr 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 10N75.5W to 
06.5N90W. The ITCZ begins near 06.5N90W to 07N107W to 00N130W to
04S140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 
02.5N to 08.5N between 90W and 108W, and from 00.5S to 04N 
between 124W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening frontal boundary has drifted across the northern  
Gulf of California to along about 112.5W. Weak low pressure
prevails across the far northern Gulf, where fresh to strong SW
winds prevail between 29N and 31N. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in this
area. A broad surface ridge extends from high pressure will NW 
of the area to southeast Mexico tonight. The associated pressure
gradient is producing strong to near gale-force northerly winds 
offshore of most of California, becoming moderate to locally 
fresh NW winds offshore of Baja Norte to N of Cabo San Lazaro. 
Seas across this are 8 to 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia. to 6 to 8 ft 
elsewhere southward to 20N. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are 
across the remainder Baja California Sur offshore waters where 
seas of 5 to 5 ft prevail. Elsewhere from the Tehuantepec 
region to the entrance to the Gulf of California, light to 
gentle winds prevail along with seas to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, seas generated by strong winds offshore 
California will continue to propagate across the waters of Baja
California tonight, with seas N of Punta Eugenia remaining at 8
to 12 ft, and 6 to 8 ft across the waters of Baja Sur. Seas will
begin to subside Fri, then quickly diminish Fri night through
Sat. Fresh to locally strong SW winds will persist in the 
northern Gulf of California through early Fri morning with seas 
peaking near 8 ft. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec 
region is forecast to begin Sun night with near gale-force winds
potentially developing Mon morning. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed NW and SW swell will 
prevail.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are blowing across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and downstream to near 88W this evening, where seas are
5 to 6 ft. Moderate N to NE winds are noted in the Gulf of 
Panama with seas 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable 
winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure is expected to persist
across the region to the N through the weekend. This pattern will
produce pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo at night and into the early morning hours through Tue 
night. However seas are expected to remain below 8 ft. Moderate 
to fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through
Sat night with seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable
winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad high pressure ridge dominates most of the forecast 
waters N of 15N and W of 115W. Afternoon scatterometer data 
showed moderate to fresh NE to E winds in this region while 
altimeter data showed seas of 5 to 8 ft in NW swell, except N of 
24N and W of the Baja California Peninsula to 130W where N-NW 
swell supports seas of 8 to 12 ft. Light to gentle winds are S of
the ITCZ.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will dominate the 
northern forecast waters over the next several days. The 
associated pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh trade
winds over the west-central waters. NW swell will continue to 
propagate across the NE waters, with seas of 8 to 11 dominating 
most of the area N of 25N between 116W and 130W by Fri morning. 
Seas associated with this swell event are forecast to subside 
below 8 ft by Sat morning.

$$
Stripling