000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132138
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Apr 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W to 
03N80W to 04N90W to 07N98W. The ITCZ begins near 07N98W to 
04N120W to 00N131W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 02N to 08N between 92W and 112W, and from 00N to 07N 
between 120W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front is moving across the Gulf of California 
and the Baja California Sur Peninsula, and extends from 31N112W 
to 27N113W. An earlier scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong
SW winds ahead of the front over the the northern Gulf of 
California N of 28N where maximum seas are 6 ft. Surface ridging
to the west of the Baja California Peninsula offshore waters 
maintains moderate to locally fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro
where recent altimeter data confirm seas in the 5 to 10 ft due 
in part to a new set of NW swell. Gentle to moderate NW to N 
winds are across the remainder Baja California Sur offshore 
waters where altimeter data also confirm seas of 4 to 6 ft. In 
the Tehuantepec region, and remainder of both SW Mexican 
offshore waters and Gulf of California, light to gentle winds
prevail along with seas to 4 ft. 

For the forecast, seas generated by strong to gale-force winds 
offshore California will continue to propagate across the waters 
N of Punta Eugenia today, with seas likely reaching 12 or 13 ft 
near 30N120W by tonight. Fresh to locally strong SW winds will 
persist in the northern Gulf of California through early Fri
morning with seas building to 8 ft. The next gap wind event in
the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Sun night with near
gale force winds potentially developing Mon morning. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will 
prevail. Looking ahead, gale conditions are possible in the 
Tehuantepec region on Mon. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are blowing across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and downstream to near 92W where seas have built to 6 ft.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama 
with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight 
to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds are 
forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo at night and into the early 
morning hours through Fri night, with seas building to 8 ft. 
Then, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail through Sun.  
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Panama through Sat with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell will 
prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As previously mentioned a cold front extends 31N113W to Asuncion
Bay to 23N120W. High pressure behind the front dominates most of
the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 120W. Moderate to fresh NW
winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft follow the front while moderate to 
fresh N to NE winds are noted under the influence of the high 
pressure. Light to gentle winds are S of the ITCZ. 

For the forecast, the cold front will move eastward while dissipating.
Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the
northern forecast waters over the next several days. The associated
pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh trade winds over
the west-central waters. Long period NW swell will continue to 
propagate across the NE waters, with seas of 8 to 11 dominating
most of the area N of 25N between 116W and 130W by Fri morning.
Seas associated with this swell event are forecast to subside
below 8 ft by Sat morning.

$$
Ramos