085 
AXPZ20 KNHC 131557
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Apr 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 
03N80W to 01N83W. The ITCZ begins near 07N94W to 06N104W to 
00N129W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N
to 06N E of 79W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 08N
between 93W and 106W, and from 00N to 07N between 120W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front is moving across the Gulf of California 
and the Baja California Peninsula, and extends from 31N113W to
Asuncion Bay to 23N120W. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted 
ahead of the front over the the northern Gulf of California N of
29N where seas have built to 7 ft. Surface ridging to the west of
the Baja California Peninsula offshore waters maintains moderate
to locally fresh NW winds N of Cabo San Lazaro where seas are in
the 5 to 10 ft due in part to a new set of NW swell. Gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds are across the remainder Baja California
Sur offshore waters with seas of 5 to 6 ft. In the Tehuantepec 
region, winds have diminish to moderate speeds and seas have
subsided to 6 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds are elsewhere 
across the Mexican offshore waters and remainder Gulf of 
California with seas to 4 ft. 

For the forecast, seas generated by strong to gale-force winds 
offshore California will continue to propagate across the waters 
N of Punta Eugenia today, with seas likely reaching 12 or 13 ft 
near 30N120W by tonight. Fresh to locally strong SW winds will 
persist in the northern Gulf of California through early Fri
morning with seas building to 8 ft. Winds are forecast to diminish
to 20 kt or less in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail.
Looking ahead, gale conditions are possible in the Tehuantepec 
region on Mon. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are blowing across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and downstream to near 87W. Moderate to fresh winds are
noted in the Gulf of Panama with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds are 
forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo at night and into the early 
morning hours through Fri night, with seas building to 8 ft. 
Then, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail through Sun.  
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Panama through Sat with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell will 
prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

As previously mentioned a cold front extends 31N113.5W to 
near 24N120W. High pressure behind the front dominates most of 
the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W. Fresh to locally 
strong NW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft follow the front while
moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted per scatterometer data
under the influence of the high pressure. Light to gentle winds
are S of the ITCZ. 

For the forecast, the cold front will move eastward while dissipating.
Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the
northern forecast waters over the next several days. The associated
pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh trade winds over
the west-central waters. Long period NW swell will continue to 
propagate across the NE waters, with seas of 8 to 11 dominating
most of the area N of 25N between 116W and 130W by Fri morning.
Seas associated with this swell event are forecast to subside
below 8 ft by Sat morning.

$$
Ramos