000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122150
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Apr 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 
05N80W to 04N84W. The ITCZ begins near 05N96W to 02N107W to
00N117W then resumes near 02N135W and continues beyond 02N140W. 
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N 
to 07N between 89W and 106W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds. 
Seas are 5 to 8 ft in NW swell N of Cabo San Lucas, and 4 to 6 ft
elsewhere across the SW Mexican offshore waters where winds 
remain light to gentle. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, N of 12N 
between 94W and 95.5W fresh to near gale force winds prevail 
along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Light and variable winds are noted 
in the Gulf of California with seas of 1 to 3 ft. 

For the forecast, strong northerly winds are expected in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 12N95W through early
this afternoon with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Then, mainly fresh 
northerly winds are expected in the Tehunatepec region through 
tonight. Seas generated by strong winds offshore California will
continue to propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia with 
seas building to 10 or 11 ft by tonight into Thu, likely 
reaching 12 or 13 ft near 30N120W by Thu night. In the Gulf of 
California, expect fresh to locally strong SW winds and building 
seas of 4 to 7 ft tonight into Thu ahead of a weakening frontal 
boundary or frontal trough. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas in mixed swell will prevail.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are blowing across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and downstream to near 91W. Moderate to locally fresh N
to NE winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama extending southward 
to about 03N. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4 
to 6 ft in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds 
and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds are
forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo at night and into the early
morning hours through Thu night, with seas building to 8 ft. 
Afterward, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail the 
remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to 
locally strong N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama 
at night and into the early morning hours through Thu night, with
seas of 3 to 5 ft. Then, gentle to moderate northerly winds are 
expected through Sun. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas in SW swell will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Former weakening stationary front has dissipated and a new cold
front has entered the forecast waters just west of the Baja 
California Norte and extends from 30N120W to 28N130W. Isolated
showers are ahead of this frontal boundary while moderate to
fresh northerly winds and seas to 8 ft follows the front. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds and seas to 8 ft are across the remainder
subtropical waters W of the front. Winds of similar magnitude
and seas to 9 ft are across the tropical waters S of 20N and W 
of 123W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail 
elsewhere across the forecast region. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure will bring some increase 
in winds across the west-central waters over the next day or two.
A new frontal boundary will be over Baja California Norte this 
evening, and over the northern Gulf of California by Thu evening.
Long period NW swell will begin to propagate across the NE 
waters later today, with seas building to 11 or 12 ft N of Punta
Eugenia by tonight into Thu.

$$
Ramos