214 
AXPZ20 KNHC 121547
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Apr 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 
06N90W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 00N117W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 
90W and 112W. Similar convective activity is from 00N to 08N W of
135W. 

An area of numerous moderate to strong convection is observed south
of the Equator to about 07S between 120W and 137W associated 
with a second ITCZ that is present in the southern hemisphere 
during March and April of each year.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas are 5 to
8 ft in NW swell N of Cabo San Lucas, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere
across the SW Mexican offshore waters where winds remain light to
gentle. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, N of 12N between 94W and 
95.5W fresh to near gale force winds prevail along with seas of 7
to 9 ft. Light and variable winds are noted in the Gulf of 
California with seas of 1 to 3 ft. 

For the forecast, strong northerly winds are expected in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 12N95W through early
this afternoon with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Then, mainly fresh 
northerly winds are expected in the Tehunatepec region through 
tonight. Seas generated by strong winds offshore California will
continue to propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia with 
seas building to 10 or 11 ft by tonight into Thu, likely 
reaching 12 or 13 ft near 30N120W by Thu night. In the Gulf of 
California, expect fresh to locally strong SW winds and building 
seas of 4 to 7 ft tonight into Thu ahead of a weakening frontal 
boundary or frontal trough. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas in mixed swell will prevail.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are blowing across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and downstream to near 88W. Fresh to locally strong N to
NE winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama extending southward to 
about 06N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4 to 6 
ft in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds are
forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo at night and into the early
morning hours through Thu night, with seas building to 8 ft. 
Afterward, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail the 
remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to 
locally strong N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama 
at night and into the early morning hours through Thu night, with
seas of 3 to 5 ft. Then, gentle to moderate northerly winds are 
expected through Sun. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas in SW swell will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 30N128W to 26N140W.
No deep convection is associated with the frontal boundary. The
most recent scatterometer satellite pass shows fresh to strong 
N to NE winds behind the front. Seas in these waters are 8 to 11
ft based on altimeter data. The scatterometer wind data also 
indicate fresh to locally strong NE to E winds winds from the 
ITCZ to about 12N and west of 129W where seas are in the 8 to 9 
ft range. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail 
elsewhere across the forecast region. 

For the forecast, a strong high pressure follows the aforementioned
dissipating front and will bring some increase in winds across 
the west-central waters over the next day or two. A new frontal 
boundary will be over Baja California Norte this evening, and 
over the northern Gulf of California by Thu evening. Long period 
NW swell will begin to propagate across the NE waters today, with
seas building to 11 or 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia by Wed night 
into Thu.

$$
Ramos