000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120328
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Apr 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to 
04N97W. The ITCZ continues from 04N97W to 03N120W to beyond 
03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
noted from 00N to 07N W of 127W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing mainly moderate NW to N winds. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in 
NW swell N of Cabo San Lazaro, and 4 to 6 ft between Los Cabos 
and Cabo San Lazaro. Persistent northerly winds of 20 to 30 kt 
continue to be enhanced by the nocturnal drainage flow across the
Tehuantepec region roughly between 0600 and 1200 UTC. Light and 
variable winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Light to 
gentle winds prevail across the remainder of Mexican offshore 
waters. 

For the forecast, strong northerly winds are expected in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 12N95W tonight into
early Wed morning with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Then, mainly fresh 
northerly winds are expected in the Tehunatepec region through 
Wed night. Seas generated by strong winds offshore California 
will propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Wed 
morning, with seas building to 10 or 11 ft by Wed night into Thu.
In the Gulf of California, expect fresh to locally strong SW 
winds and building seas of 4 to 7 ft Wed night into Thu ahead of 
a weakening frontal boundary or frontal trough. Elsewhere, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will 
prevail.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE 
to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream to near 
88W. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are noted in the Gulf 
of Panama extending southward to about 06N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in
the Papagayo region, and 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere,
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds are
forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo at night and into the early
morning hours through Wed night, with seas building to 8 ft.
Afterward, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail the 
remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Panama at night and into the early 
morning hours through Wed night, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Then,
gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected through at least 
Fri. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 
seas in SW swell will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 30N128W to 26N140W.
No deep convection is associated with the frontal boundary. The
most recent scatterometer satellite pass shows fresh to strong 
NE winds behind the front. Seas in these waters are 8 to 11 ft 
based on altimeter data. The scatterometer wind data also 
indicate fresh to locally strong NE to E winds winds from the 
ITCZ to about 15N and west of 120W where seas are in the 8 to 9 
ft range. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail 
elsewhere across the forecast region. 

For the forecast, a strong high pressure follows the aforementioned
dissipating front and will bring some increase in winds across 
the west-central waters over the next day or two. A new frontal 
boundary will be over Baja California Norte Wed evening, and over
the northern Gulf of California by Thu evening. Long period NW 
swell will begin to propagate across the NE waters on Wed, with 
seas building to 11 or 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia by Wed night into
Thu.

$$
GR