000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112140
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Apr 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W
to 04N97W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N97W to 03N120W to beyond 
03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted off NW Colombia,
especially east of 80W. Similar convection is seen from 03N to
08N and between 89W and 99W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection from 01N to 06N and west of 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured mainly moderate
northerly winds in the offshore waters of Baja California due to
the weak pressure regime dominating the area. Seas in these
waters are 4-7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and 1-4 ft are
present in the Gulf of California.

Fresh to strong northerly winds continue to affect the waters of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, propagating southward to 11N. Seas in
the region described are 5-8 ft. An altimeter satellite pass from
a couple hours ago depicted peak seas of 8-9 ft near 
13N95W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
are prevalent.

For the forecast, strong northerly winds with higher gusts are 
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 12N97W 
during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will build to
10 or 11 ft through Wed morning. Then, fresh to locally strong northerly
winds through Wed night. Seas generated by strong winds offshore
California will propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia 
on Wed morning, with seas building to 11 or 12 ft by Wed night 
into Fri. In the Gulf of California, expect fresh to locally 
strong SW winds and building seas of 4-7 ft Wed night into Thu 
ahead of a weakening frontal boundary or frontal trough. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell
will prevail.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago showed fresh to
strong easterly winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to
09N92W. Winds have decreased this afternoon to moderate to fresh
in the region described. Seas are 5-7 ft. Farther south, moderate
to locally fresh northerly winds are occurring in the waters of
the Gulf of Panama and south of the Azuero peninsula downstream 
to 02N. Seas in these waters are also 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE-E winds are 
forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo at night and into the early 
morning hours through late this week, with seas building to 7 or
8 ft. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail 
the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds 
are expected in the Gulf of Panama at night and into the early 
morning hours through Wed night, with seas building to 7 ft. 
Then, gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected through the
weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas in S-SW swell will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A dissipating stationary front extends from a 1023 mb low
pressure system near 31N128W to 26N140W. No deep convection is
associated with the frontal boundary. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass depict fresh to strong NE winds behind the front.
Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. The scatterometer wind data
also indicated mainly fresh easterly trade winds from the ITCZ
to 15N and west of 115W. The wave heights in the area described
are 6-9 ft with the highest seas occurring near 11N137W. Moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the remainder of the
eastern tropical Pacific.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary is forecast
to weaken over the next few days as it moves southeastward. 
Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft in the wake of the 
front are forecast to reach from 30N124W to 27N140W by Tue 
evening. A strong high pressure follows the front bringing some 
increase in winds across the west-central waters over the next
day or two. A new frontal boundary will be over Baja California 
Norte Wed evening, and over the northern Gulf of California by 
Thu evening. Long period NW swell event will begin to propagate 
across the NE waters on Wed, with seas building to 11 or 12 ft N 
of Punta Eugenia by Wed night into Thu.

$$
DELGADO