000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110919 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Apr 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N77W to 05N93W. The ITCZ continues from 05N93W to 04N120W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite imagery from 03N to 08N between 90W and 100W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 05N west of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly moderate NW to N winds. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia, and 3 to 5 ft between Los Cabos and Punta Eugenia. Persistent northerly winds of 20 to 30 kt continue to be enhanced by the nocturnal drainage flow across the Tehuantepec region roughly between 0600 and 1200 UTC. Light to gentle NW winds are noted in the Gulf of California. Similar wind speeds prevail across the remainder of Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, strong northerly winds, with higher gusts, are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 12N97W during the overnight and early morning hours with seas building to 10 or 11 ft through Wed morning. Then, mainly fresh northerly winds are expected through Wed night. Seas generated by strong winds offshore California will propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia on Wed morning, with seas building to 10 or 11 ft by Wed night into Thu. In the Gulf of California, expect fresh to locally strong SW winds and building seas of 4 to 7 ft Wed night into Thu ahead of a weakening frontal boundary or frontal trough. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh easterly winds over Lake Nicaragua, and fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream to near 88W. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama extending southward to about 06N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the Papagayo region, and 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Panama south of 08N based on a recent altimeter pass. The highest seas are near the Azuero Peninsula. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds are forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo at night and into the early morning hours through Wed night, with seas building to 8 ft. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama at night and into the early morning hours through Wed night, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Then, gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected through at least through Fri. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front has reached the NW corner of the forecast region, and extends from 30N135W to 28N140W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas in the 8 to 11 ft range in NW swell follow the front. E of the front, a 1024 mb high pressure is analyzed near 27N133W, and this system dominates mainly the waters N of 15N and W of 110W. Satellite derived wind data indicate moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 120W with some wind barbs of 25 kt from 17N to 20N and W of 135W. Seas in these waters are 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted N of the ITCZ with light to gentle winds S of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will weaken as the cold front moves SE across the northern forecast waters while weakening. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected in the wake of the front, forecast to reach from 30N124W to 27N140W by Tue evening. The frontal boundary will be over Baja California Norte Wed evening, and over the northern Gulf of California by Thu evening. High pressure will follow the front bringing some increase in winds across the west-central waters by Wed night, particularly from 16N to 25N W of 134W. Long period NW swell event will begin to propagate across the NE waters on Wed, with seas building to 10 or 11 ft N of Punta Eugenia by Wed night into Thu. $$ GR