000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102047
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Apr 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2045 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia
near 07N78W to 05N92W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N92W to 07N119W
to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident on 
satellite imagery from 03N to 09N and between 87W and 95W. 
Similar convection is seen from 03N to 07N and west of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The weather pattern remains unchanged as the 1023 mb high
pressure system well to the west of Mexico continues nearly 
stationary. The weak pressure regime allows for gentle to 
moderate northerly winds across the offshore waters of Baja 
California. Seas are 4-6 ft in the area described. Light to 
gentle variable winds and seas of 1-4 ft are found in the Gulf of
California. Satellite imagery show an area of showers affecting
the southern Gulf of California, but quickly moving to the
northeast toward Sonora and Sinaloa.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to near 
gale force northerly winds in the Gulf of California, spreading 
downward to 12N. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere in 
the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle variable winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force northerly winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight and 
early morning hours through Wed, with seas building to 10 ft. 
Gusty winds to gale-force are also possible. These marine 
conditions will spread downwind of the Gulf to near 12N96W 
through Wed morning. Seas generated by strong winds offshore 
California will propagate across the waters N of Punta Eugenia on
Wed, with seas building to 11 or 12 ft by Wed night into Thu. In
the Gulf of California, expect fresh to locally strong SW winds 
Wed night into Thu ahead of a weakening frontal boundary. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will 
prevail.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago showed fresh to
strong easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and nearshore
Nicaraguan waters. These winds have diminished to moderate to
fresh speeds this afternoon. Seas are 5-7 ft in the area
described. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of
5-7 ft are noted in the Gulf of Panama and south of the Azuero
peninsula, spreading downstream to 02N. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds are
forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early
morning hours through Thu with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh to
locally strong N-NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama at 
night and into the early morning hours with seas of 5 to 7 ft
through Wed. Winds will then diminish to mainly moderate to
fresh. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate 
seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front enters the northwest waters of the eastern tropical
Pacific, extending from 30N137W to 28N140W. No significant
convection is associated with this feature. Mainly fresh NE winds
are occurring behind the frontal boundary. Building wave heights
of 8 to 10 ft follow the cold front. The rest of the basin is
dominated by a 1023 mb high pressure system anchored near
28N130W. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are present from
the ITCZ to 23N and west of 110W. NE swell in these waters 
sustain seas of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will weaken as the 
cold front in the NW portion of the basin progresses
southeastward over the next few days. Fresh to strong winds and 
building seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected in the wake of the 
front, forecast to reach from 30N124W to 25N140W by Tue night 
while weakening. Moderate to occasionally strong trades will 
prevail across the west-central waters through Thu. A NW swell 
event will begin to propagate across the NE waters on Wed, with 
seas building to 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia by Wed night into Thu.

$$
DELGADO