363 
AXPZ20 KNHC 101545
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Apr 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1535 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the eastern coast of Panama near 
07N78W to 06N92W. The ITCZ continues from 06N92W to 04N115W to 
beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 
03N to 09N and between 87W and 95W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge continues positioned well to the west of
Mexico and extends southeastward toward the Revillagigedo
Islands. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft
are noted in the offshore waters of Baja California. Light to
gentle northerly winds are found in the northern Gulf of
California, while gentle to locally moderate northerly winds are
noted in the central and southern portions of the basin. Seas are
1-2 ft in the northern waters and 2-4 ft in the central and
southern waters of the Gulf.

Fresh to near gale force northerly winds are affecting the waters
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, allowing the seas to build to 7 to 9
ft. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle 
variable winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, strong northerly winds are expected in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec during the overnight and early morning hours through
Wed, with seas building to 10 ft. Gusty winds to gale-force are 
also possible. These marine conditions will spread downwind of 
the Gulf to near 12N96W through Wed morning. Seas generated by 
strong winds offshore California will propagate across the waters
N of Punta Eugenia on Wed, with seas building to 11 or 12 ft by 
Wed night into Thu. In the Gulf of California, expect fresh to 
locally strong SW winds Wed night into Thu ahead of a weakening 
frontal boundary. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas will prevail.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds continue to affect the Gulf
of Papagayo and nearshore Nicaraguan waters, spreading downstream
to 92W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Farther south, moderate
to fresh northerly wind are present in the Gulf of Panama and
south of the Azuero peninsula, extending southward to 03S. Wave
heights are also 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 
slight to moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds are
forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early
morning hours through Thu with seas building to 8 ft. Mainly 
fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama at night 
and into the early morning hours with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas,
primarily in SW swell, will prevail. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge remains centered over the northern waters
of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between
the 1021 mb high pressure system and lower pressures in the deep
tropics support moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds
from the ITCZ to 23N and west of 110W. Combined swell in these
waters sustain seas of 6-8 ft. A recent altimeter satellite pass
captured seas up to 8 ft near 10N135W. A cold front is near the 
NW corner of the basin and fresh to strong northerly winds and 
high seas are found behind it. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will weaken 
as a cold front enters the NW forecast waters later this morning.
Fresh to strong winds and building seas of 8 to 11 ft are 
expected in the wake of the front, forecast to reach from 30N124W
to 25N140W by Tue night while weakening. Moderate to fresh 
trades will prevail across the west-central waters through at 
least mid-week. A NW swell event will begin to propagate across 
the NE waters on Wed, with seas building to 11 or 12 ft N of 
Punta Eugenia by Wed night into Thu.

$$
DELGADO