198 
AXPZ20 KNHC 100917
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Apr 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to
06N93W. The ITCZ continues from 06N93W to 04N115W to 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 07N between
87W and 90W. Isolated moderate convection is within about 150 nm
N of the ITCZ between 93W and 104W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1023 mb located near 28N129W extends a ridge 
across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting
gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Light 
to gentle NW winds are noted per scatterometer data in the Gulf 
of California, with seas of 1 to 3 ft, highest near to the 
entrance of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere 
across the Mexican offshore waters, except along the coast of 
Jalisco, including Cabo Corrientes, where moderate NW winds are 
noted, and in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A recent ASCAT pass 
indicates N winds of 20 to 25 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 
downwind to near 15N. Seas are 8 ft within these winds. 

For the forecast, strong northerly winds are expected in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec during the overnight and early morning hours through
Wed, with seas building to 10 or 11 ft. Gusty winds to gale-force
are also possible. These marine conditions will spread downwind 
of the Gulf to near 12N96W through Wed morning. Seas generated 
by strong winds offshore California will propagate across the 
waters N of Punta Eugenia on Wed, with seas building to 11 or 12 
ft by Wed night into Thu. In the Gulf of California, expect fresh
to locally strong SW winds Wed night into Thu ahead of a weakening
frontal boundary. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas will prevail.

Of note, climatologically, the final gale force event in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec occurs in late March or early April. Only a
couple of Tehuantepec events have been detected in May since the
1999-2000 season, one in 2003 and the second one in 2006.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to locally strong N winds are funneling into the Gulf of
Panama from the Caribbean based on recent scatterometer data.  
Fresh to strong NE to E winds are blowing across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and downstream to near 88W. Seas in these waters are 4 
to 7. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate 
seas are noted.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds are
forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early
morning hours through Thu with seas building to 8 ft. Mainly 
fresh N to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama at night 
and into the early morning hours with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas,
primarily in SW, swell will prevail. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1023 mb located near 28N129W dominates the
northern forecast waters, particularly N of 15N and W of 110W. 
Recent satellite derived wind data show moderate to fresh NE-E 
winds from the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 120W. Seas in these 
waters are 6-8 ft. A light to gentle anticyclonic flow is observed
near the high center. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are 
noted N of the ITCZ with light to gentle winds S of the ITCZ. 
Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft W of 110W, and 3 to 5 ft E of 110W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will weaken 
as a cold front enters the NW forecast waters later today. Fresh 
to strong winds and building seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected in 
the wake of the front, forecast to reach from 30N124W to 25N140W
by Tue night while weakening. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail
across the west-central waters through at least mid-week. A NW 
swell event will begin to propagate across the NE waters on Wed, 
with seas building to 11 or 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia by Wed night
into Thu.

$$
GR