000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091505
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Apr 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1455 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the coast of NW Colombia near 
07N77W to 04N96W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N96W to 03N110W to
01N122W. Then continues from 05S120W to beyond 04S140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N and
between 84W and 102W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure system is located near 28N125W and
extends southeasterly to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico
sustain moderate to fresh northerly winds in the waters north of
Punta Eugenia, while moderate northerly winds dominate the
remainder of the Baja California offshore waters. Seas in these
waters are 3-6 ft. Light to gentle mainly northerly winds and 
seas of 1-3 ft are found in the Gulf of California.

Fresh to strong northerly winds are affecting the waters of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending southward to 13N. The wave heights
in the area described are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas prevail in the remaining offshore waters 
of Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec at night and into the morning hours, 
diminishing in the afternoons through Thu. Wind speeds to near 
gale-force are forecast late at night and early in the mornings 
Mon and Tue, with winds possibly briefly gusting to gale-force. 
Seas will exceed 8 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, a storm system
off SW California will produce a NW swell that will reach the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte Tue night, with seas 
building to 12 ft by Wed night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The pressure gradient between the ridge north of Central America
and lower pressures in the deep tropics continues to support
fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
and the nearshore waters of Nicaragua, extending westward to 92W.
Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. The same weather pattern is also
sustaining fresh to strong N-NE winds in the Gulf of Panama and
south of the Azuero peninsula, extending southward to 04N. Wave
heights in the area described are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds are
forecast in the Gulf of Papagayo at night and into the early
afternoon hours through most of the upcoming week. Fresh to 
strong north to northeast winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Panama and south of the Azuero peninsula at night and into the 
early afternoons through Tue, then mainly at fresh speeds 
afterward. Seas will peak near 7 ft during the strongest winds. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore Costa Rica. This
activity is likely to continue through tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The subtropical ridge remains positioned over the northern
waters of the tropical eastern Pacific, sustaining moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds from the ITCZ to 24N and west of
110W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the mainly fresh northeast to east trade winds 
will change little through Tue. The 7-9 ft seas will subside a 
little through Mon, then build back up to a peak of 9 ft Tue as 
the trade winds increase to fresh to locally strong primarily 
from 09N to 13N and between 125W-140W. Looking ahead, a cold 
front will approach 30N140W early Mon and sink south-southeastward
as it weakens through mid-week. Fresh to strong northeast winds 
will follow in behind the front later on Mon and through mid-
week. A large set of northwest swell inducing seas of 8-10 ft 
will begin to intrude into the far northwest waters early on Mon.
By mid-week, another set of northwest swell will propagate 
through the northeast waters creating seas to 12 ft by late in 
the week. Fresh to strong northwest winds will be just north of 
30N and east of 125W at that time.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER