000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090939
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Apr 09 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from low pressure over NW Colombia near
10N74W southwestward to 08N79W to 04N90W to 03N102W to 03N110W 
to 04N124W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 180 nm 
north of trough between 83W-89W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge continues positioned well to the west of
Baja California. Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Seas over these waters have build to 6-9 ft
during the overnight hours. Moderate to fresh northwest to north
winds and seas of 4-6 ft are over the offshore waters north of 
Cabo San Lazaro, except for slightly higher seas of 5-7 ft
north of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds and seas 
of 3-5 ft are present in the remaining offshore waters of Baja 
California.

Light and variable winds are over the Gulf of California, except
for gentle to moderate northwest winds over the southern section 
of the Gulf. Seas of 2-3 ft are over the Gulf of California,
except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft over the southern
section. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail in the remaining offshore waters of Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec at night and into the morning hours, 
diminishing in the afternoons through Thu. Wind speeds to near 
gale-force are forecast late at night and early in the mornings 
Mon and Tue, with winds possibly briefly gusting to gale-force. 
Seas will exceed 8 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, a storm system
off SW California will produce a NW swell that will reach the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte Tue night, with seas 
building to 11 ft by Wed night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo will diminish to fresh speeds this afternoon. Seas with
these winds are in the range of 6-8 ft, but will subside to 4-6
ft in the afternoon. 

Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are south of the Gulf
of Panama from 06N to 07N between 80W-81W along with seas of 4-6
ft as implied by nearby altimeter data. Just to the southwest of
these winds fresh northeast to east winds are present from 05N 
to 07N between 81W-83W along with seas of 4-6 ft

For the forecast, once the fresh to strong northeast to east gap
winds in the Gulf of Papagayo diminish this afternoon they
will pulse back up to fresh to strong speeds late at night and 
into the early afternoons through the period. Fresh to strong 
north to northeast winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama and 
south of the Azuero peninsula at night and into the early 
afternoons through Tue, then mainly at fresh speeds afterward. 
Seas may peak to 7 ft near 06N79W late tonight. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are offshore Costa Rica. This activity 
is likely to continue through tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 28N128W. The
pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is allowing for mainly fresh northeast to 
east winds north of the ITCZ to near 23N and west of about 119W. 
Seas over these waters are 7-9 ft due to a long-period
north to northeast swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the mainly fresh northeast to east winds will
change little through Tue. The 7-9 ft seas will subside a little 
through Mon, then build back up to a peak of 0 ft Tue as the 
trade wind increase to fresh to locally strong primarily from 
09N to 13N between 125W-140W. 
 
Looking ahead, a cold front will approach 30N140W early Mon and 
sink south-southeastward as it weakens through mid-week and as 
strong high pressure builds over the waters north of about 21N.
Fresh to strong northeast winds will follow in behind the front 
later on Mon and through mid-week. A large set of northwest 
swell inducing seas of 8-10 ft will begin to intrude into the far
northwest waters early on Mon. By mid-week, another set of 
northwest swell will propagate through the northeast waters 
creating seas to 12 ft by late in the week, and fresh to strong 
northwest winds will be just north of 30N and east of 125W at 
that time.

$$
Aguirre