000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090355 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Apr 09 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 07N77W to 04N93W to 03N100W to low pressure near 03N108W 1007 mb to 03N115W and to 03N123W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 12N between 116W-123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The subtropical ridge continues positioned well to the west of Baja California. Fresh to strong northerly winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas over these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds and seas of 3-5 ft are over the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate N-NE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are present in the remaining offshore waters of Baja California. Light to locally moderate northerly winds and slight to moderate seas are present in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail in the remaining offshore waters of Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec at night into the morning hours, diminishing in the afternoons through Thu. Wind speeds to near gale force are forecast for Mon night and may reach frequent gusts to gale- force Tue night. Seas will exceed 8 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, a storm system off SW California will produce a NW swell that will reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte Tue night, with seas building to 11 ft by Wed night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate easterly in the Gulf of Papagayo region will increase to fresh to strong force late tonight. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Latest available ASCAT data showed a patch of fresh to strong north to east winds through south-southwest of Panama, especially from 04N to 07N and between 80W and 85W. These winds are about 5 knots higher than originally expected, suggesting a tighter pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressures in the deep tropics. Seas over these water are in the 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse back up to fresh to strong speeds late at night and into the early afternoons through most of the upcoming week. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama and south of the Azuero peninsula at night and into the early afternoons through Tue. Seas in both regions will build up to 7 ft during the strongest winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore Costa Rica. This activity is likely to continue through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1021 mb high pressure center is located near 27N130W. A dissipating stationary front is draped across the northernmost waters, extending from 30N129W to 29N140W. No significant winds or seas are associated with this feature. Latest ASCAT data shows mainly fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to near 23N and west of about 119W. Seas over these waters are 7-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds will prevail through most of the forecast period. The 8-10 ft seas will subside over the next few days, but seas to 8 ft will continue west of 130W through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach 30N140W early Mon and slide southeastward as it weakens. A large set of northwest swell inducing seas of 8-10 ft will begin to intrude into the far northwest waters early on Mon. By mid-week, another set of northwest swell will propagate through the northeast waters creating seas to 12 ft by late in the week. $$ Aguirre