232 
AXPZ20 KNHC 070346
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Apr 07 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to low pressure near 09N86W 
1008 mb to 05N96W to 04N104W to low pressure near 05N110W 1007 
mb and to 05N116W, where latest scatterometer data indicates 
that it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N125W to 04N131W and to 
beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection 
is south of the trough and between 80W-91W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 91W-97W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure west of
the Baja California peninsula and low pressure over Mexico is
supporting moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of California 
and moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light 
to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft 
range over the Gulf of California and 6-7 ft west of the Baja 
California peninsula as indicated the latest available altimeter
data pass over these waters. Seas of 4-6 ft remain elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of 
California will become light and variable winds over the 
northern Gulf of California on Fri, and mostly moderate 
northwest winds elsewhere over the Gulf. Looking ahead, fresh to 
strong gap winds and building seas are possible over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Sun and Sun night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area 
and the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong northeast
to east gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate gap 
winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the Gulf of 
Papagayo, 4-5 ft over the Gulf of Panama, and 3-4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast,  fresh to strong easterly gap winds will 
continue in the Gulf of Papagayo tonight, then moderate to fresh 
easterly winds for the rest of the forecast period. Gentle to 
moderate winds will continue elsewhere along with a moderate 
long-period southerly swell, except in the Gulf of Panama where 
fresh northerly winds are expected Sat through Tue night. 
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are offshore Costa Rica and 
over the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. This activity is expected to continue through at least 
Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high center is analyzed near 28N135W. The pressure 
gradient between the corresponding ridge north of 20N and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to 
fresh northeast to east trade winds north of the ITCZ to about 
22N and west of 117W. These winds combined with a long- period 
north to northeast swell are resulting in seas of 8-9 ft. 
Moderate north to northeast winds and combined seas peaking to 7 
ft are present north of 20N and east of 125W. Light to gentle 
anticyclonic winds associated to the 1022 mb high center are 
north of 22N and west of 125W as indicated in the latest ASCAT
pass over that part of the area. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range 
due to a long-period southwest swell.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will persist 
north of 20N through Fri, with the related pressure gradient 
allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds south of 20N and west
of 120W. Combined seas will subside as the northerly swell 
decays. Looking ahead, the high pressure will shift eastward Sat 
through late Sun in response to a weak cold front that will 
approach 30N140W late Sun. The front is expected to weaken
further early next week as it moves over the north-central and 
northeast waters as strong high pressure ridging builds east-
southeastward across these same waters.

$$
Aguirre