000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060843
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Apr 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N83W to 05N95W to 06N115W. The 
ITCZ continues from 06N115W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate
convection extends from 00N to 05N between 85W and 95W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed moderate to 
fresh NW winds off Baja California, between low pressure over
central Mexico and weak high pressure building over the eastern
Pacific. Fresh NW winds also persist over the Gulf of California.  
Combined seas off Baja California reaching as far south as the 
Revillagigedo Islands are still 7 to 8 ft in lingering NW swell.
Gentle breezes are evident farther south, with moderate combined
seas in SW swell. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires may be 
impacting the near shore waters of southern Mexico from Chiapas 
to Michoacan. 

For the forecast, the low pressure over north-central Mexico 
will weaken and shift east today, as weak high pressure builds 
over the eastern Pacific. This pattern will allow fresh winds 
over the Gulf of California to gradually diminish through late 
today. Large swell off the coast of Baja California will also 
subside today. Looking ahead, fresh to strong gap winds and 
building seas are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and 
Sun night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The gradient between high pressure north of the region and lower
pressure over the tropics is supporting fresh to locally strong 
NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the Nicaraguan 
coast this morning, with seas of 6 to 7 ft. This was confirmed 
by a scatterometer satellite pass from around 0330 UTC. Moderate
to locally fresh N winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are likely 
occurring in the Gulf of Panama and downstream to about 04N. 
Gentle winds and slight to moderate swell prevail for the 
remainder of the offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong easterly gap winds across 
the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse again tonight then will diminish.
Early morning winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama Sat
through Mon. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere 
with moderate long-period southerly swell. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge north of 20N is supporting fresh NE to E trade
winds from 05N to 20N west of 120W with 8 to 10 ft combined seas
of 8 to 10 ft with a component of northerly swell. Moderate to 
fresh N to NE winds and 8 to 9 ft combined seas are noted north 
of 15N and east of 125W. Light to gentle breezes are noted 
elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell. An upper trough
along 90W is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms south
of 05N and east of 95W.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist north of 20N 
through Fri, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of
20N, west of 120W through Fri. Combined seas will subside as the
northerly swell decays. Looking ahead, the high pressure will
shift eastward Sat and Sun ahead of a weak cold front that will
approach 30N140W late Sun, then stall across the waters north of
25N and west of 120W through Mon. 

$$
Christensen