000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060238 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Apr 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 05N100W to 06N115W. The ITCZ continues from 06N115W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 03S to 05N between 80W and 95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Ship observations confirm NW winds off Baja California have been diminishing gradually throughout the day as low pressure over north-central Mexico weakens. Fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of California will diminish overnight as well. Combined seas off Baja California reaching as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands are still 8 to 9 ft in lingering NW swell. Gentle breezes are evident farther south, with moderate combined seas in SW swell. Areas of smoke from agricultural fires may be impacting the near shore waters of southern Mexico from Chiapas to Michoacan. For the forecast, low pressure over north-central Mexico will weaken and shift east through Thu, as weak high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. This pattern will allow fresh winds off Baja California and the Gulf of California to gradually diminish through Thu, with large swell off the coast of Baja California subsiding into Thu. Gentle breezes will persist through Sat off southern Mexico, with moderate combined seas in SW swell. Looking ahead, fresh to strong gap winds and building seas are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The gradient between high pressure north of the region and lower pressure over the tropics is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the Nicaraguan coast this afternoon, with seas of 6 to 7 ft. This was confirmed by an earlier scatterometer satellite pass. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are likely occurring in the Gulf of Panama and downstream to about 04N. Gentle winds and slight to moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, the fresh to strong easterly gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse tonight and Thu night. Early morning winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama tonight and again Sat and Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere with moderate long-period southerly swell. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are expected off Ecuador through Thu night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge north of 20N is supporting fresh NE to E trade winds from 05N to 20N west of 120W with 8 to 10 ft combined seas of 8 to 10 ft with a component of northerly swell. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 8 to 9 ft combined seas are noted north of 15N and east of 125W. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell. An upper trough along 90W is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms south of 05N and east of 95W. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist north of 20N through Fri, causing winds to decrease in the subtropics. This feature will maintain the gradient with lower pressure in the equatorial latitudes, sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds from 05N to 20N, and west of 120W through the weekend. $$ Christensen