000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052053 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Apr 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 04N98W to 06N115W. The ITCZ continues from 06N115W to 02N131W to beyond 02N140W. A Southern Hemisphere surface trough extends from 03S98W to 01S116W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 06.5N between 81.5W and 108W, and from 00N to 03.4S between 80.5W and 85W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01S to 03.4S between 93W and 105W, and from 04N to 06.5N between 118W and 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent ASCAT satellite wind data indicate that fresh N winds are persisting west of Baja California. Seas west of Baja California are in the 7 to 10 ft range, with 7 to 9 ft seas reaching as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to strong NW winds with 5 to 7 ft seas persist across the Gulf of California. These winds are between low pressure over central Mexico and a 1030 mb high pressure centered near 31N135W. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere farther south over southern Mexico, with moderate seas primarily in southerly swell. For the forecast, low pressure over north-central Mexico will weaken and shift east today, as weak high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. This pattern will allow fresh winds off Baja California and fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of California to gradually diminish tonight through Thu, with large swell off the coast of Baja California subsiding into Thu. Gentle breezes will persist through Sat off southern Mexico, with moderate combined seas in SW swell. Looking ahead, fresh to strong gap winds and building seas are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The gradient between high pressure north of the region and lower pressure over the tropics is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the Nicaraguan coast this afternoon, with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are likely occurring in the Gulf of Panama and downstream to about 04N. Gentle winds and slight to moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, enhanced showers and thunderstorms are expected off Ecuador through Thu night. The fresh to strong easterly gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse tonight and Thu night. Early morning winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama tonight and again Sat and Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere with moderate long-period southerly swell. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends from 1030 mb high pressure centered near 31N135W southeastward toward the area to the south of Baja California. This pattern is supporting mostly moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds north of 15N and east of 125W. Combined seas in this area are 8 to 10 ft in northerly swell. Recent ASCAT satellite data show fresh ENE trade winds north of the ITCZ to 23N, and west of 125W, where seas are also 8 to 10 ft. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with moderate seas. For the forecast, high pressure will build north of 25N through Fri, causing winds to decrease in the subtropics. This feature will maintain the gradient with lower pressure in the equatorial latitudes, sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds from 05N to 22N, and west of 120W through the weekend. $$ Hagen