000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051556
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Apr 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 04N96W to 07N114W. The 
ITCZ continues from 07N114W to 04N130W to beyond 03N140W. A
Southern Hemisphere surface trough extends from 04S81W to
03S110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N to 06.5N between 81.5W and 108W, from 00N to 03.4S
between 81.5W and 84W, and from 01S to 3.4S between 96W and 104W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07.5N between
117W and 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh N winds, possibly still locally strong, persist west of 
Baja California. Seas west of Baja California are likely still 
in the 8 to 11 ft range, with 7 to 9 ft seas reaching as far 
south as the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to strong NW winds with
6 to 8 ft seas persist across the southern and central Gulf of 
California. These winds are between low pressure over central 
Mexico and weak ridging building over the eastern Pacific. 
Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere farther south over southern 
Mexico, with moderate combined seas primarily in southerly swell.

For the forecast, low pressure over north-central Mexico will 
weaken and shift east today, as weak high pressure builds over 
the eastern Pacific. This pattern will allow fresh winds off Baja
California and fresh to strong winds over the central Gulf of 
California to gradually diminish tonight through Thu, with large
swell off the coast of Baja California subsiding into Thu. 
Gentle breezes will persist through Sat off southern Mexico, with
moderate combined seas in SW swell. Looking ahead, fresh to 
strong gap winds and building seas are possible over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Sun and Sun night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The gradient between high pressure north of the region and lower
pressure over the tropics is supporting fresh to strong easterly
gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the Nicaraguan coast. 
Seas are peaking near 7 ft within these winds. Moderate to 
locally fresh N winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft persist in the Gulf 
of Panama and downstream to about 04N. Gentle winds and slight to
moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the offshore 
forecast waters.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong easterly gap winds across the
Gulf of Papagayo will pulse tonight and Thu night. Early morning
winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama tonight and again Sat
and Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere with 
moderate long-period southerly swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure 
centered near 32N136W southeastward toward the area to the south
of Baja California. This pattern is supporting mostly moderate 
to fresh NNE to NE winds north of 15N and east of 125W. Combined
seas in this area are 8 to 10 ft in northerly swell. Fresh ENE 
trade winds prevail north of the ITCZ to 24N, and west of 125W, 
with seas of 8 to 9 ft. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with 
moderate seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of 25N through 
Fri, causing winds to decrease in the subtropics. This feature 
will maintain the gradient with lower pressure in the equatorial 
latitudes, sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds from 05N to 
22N through the weekend.

$$
Hagen