000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050838
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Apr 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N78W to 08N85W to 03N95W to 
08N115W. The ITCZ continues from 08N115W to 04N125W to beyond 
05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 02N to 05N 
between 87W and 97W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong NW winds persist off Baja California and across
the central Gulf of California. These winds are between low
pressure over central Mexico and weak ridging building over the
eastern Pacific, east of Baja California. An earlier altimeter 
pass indicated 8 to 12 ft combined seas off Baja California and 
reaching as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle
breezes are noted elsewhere farther south over southern Mexico,
with moderate combined seas primarily in southerly swell.

For the forecast, low pressure over north-central Mexico will 
weaken and shift east today, as weak high pressure builds over 
the eastern Pacific. This pattern will allow fresh winds off Baja
California and fresh to strong winds over the central Gulf of 
California to diminish through tonight, with large swell off the 
coast of Baja California subsiding into Thu. Gentle breezes will 
persist through Sat off southern Mexico, with moderate combined 
seas in SW swell. Looking ahead, fresh to strong gap winds and 
building seas are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun and 
Sun night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The gradient between high pressure north of the of the region 
and lower pressure over the tropics is supporting fresh to strong
easterly gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the 
Nicaraguan coast. Seas are peaking near 7 ft within these winds.
Moderate N winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft persist in the Gulf of 
Panama and downstream to about 04N. Gentle winds and slight to 
moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the offshore forecast
waters.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong easterly gap winds across the
Gulf of Papagayo will pulse tonight and Thu night. Early morning
winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama tonight and again Sat
and Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere with 
moderate long-period southerly swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure 
centered near 33N135W to the south of Baja California. This 
pattern is supporting mostly moderate to fresh N to NE winds 
north of 10N, west of 110W, except for the stronger NW winds off
Baja California. Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft in northerly swell.
Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere, with moderate seas primarily
in SW swell. 

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of 25N through 
Fri, causing winds to decrease in the subtropics. This feature 
will maintain the gradient with lower pressure in the equatorial 
latitudes, sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds from 05N to 
22N through the weekend.

$$
Christensen