000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042100
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Apr 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2050 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends along the coast of Colombia from 07N78W
to 02N80W. A second trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W 
to 04N97W to 07N110W. The ITCZ extends from 08N116W to 05N133W to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 
01N to 06N between 83W and 88W, from 02N to 07N between 92W and 
105W, and from 04N to 07N between 124W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong NW winds in
both the Gulf of California and in the Pacific offshore waters 
north of 18N. Sea heights are currently 8 to 12 ft west of the 
Baja peninsula and peaking at 6 ft in the central Gulf of 
California, both on a slow abating trend. Winds are gentle and 
seas moderate in the Mexican offshore waters south of 17N.
Smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico may be 
limiting visibility slightly in the coastal waters from Chiapas 
to Jalisco. 

For the forecast, strong NW winds will persist through the night
in the northern East Pacific waters. Fresh to strong winds will 
linger in the Gulf of California through Wed night. High pressure
will rebuild Thursday, causing conditions to improve across the
Mexican offshore waters for the remainder of the week. A strong 
gap wind event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this
weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The gradient between high pressure north of the of the region 
and lower pressure over the tropics is supporting fresh to strong
easterly gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the 
Nicaraguan coast. Seas are peaking near 7 ft within these winds.
Moderate N winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft persist in the Gulf of 
Panama and downstream to about 04N. Gentle winds and slight to 
moderate swell prevail for the remainder of the offshore forecast
waters.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong easterly gap winds across 
the Gulf of Papagayo will persist for the next several days. 
Early morning winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama 
through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere with moderate long-period southerly swell.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the deep tropics is supporting fresh to strong N to NE winds
north of 22N, as well as fresh NE to E trade winds west of 125W
and north of 06N. These two fetch areas are combining to create a
large area of 8 to 11 ft combined seas northwest of a line from 
05N135W to the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle winds and moderate 
seas in a S swell are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build along 28N through Fri,
causing winds to decrease in the subtropics. This feature will 
maintain the gradient with lower pressure in the equitorial 
lattitudes, sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds from 05N to 
22N through the weekend.

$$
Flynn