000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041506
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 08N84W to 04N96W to
07N110W. The ITCZ continues from 07N110W to 06N125W to beyond 
06N140W. Scattered strong convection is observed along the
Pacific coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 01N to 06N between 84W and 90W, from 03N to 11N
between 96W and 115W, and from 05N to 07N between 120W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The cold front previously along the northern Gulf of California
has dissipated, although a moderate pressure gradient remains
across the eastern Pacific. Strong northerly winds are occurring
in the offshore waters along the coast of Baja California and in
the northern Gulf of California. In the eastern Pacific, sea 
heights are in the 12 to 14 ft range north of 28N and 8 to 12 ft 
north of 22N. Sea heights are peaking near 7 ft in the northern
Gulf of California. Gentle breezes and moderate seas of 3-5 ft
are evident elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires over 
southern Mexico may be limiting visibility slightly in the 
coastal waters from Chiapas to Jalisco. 

For the forecast, Strong to near-gale force NW winds will persist
in the northern zones along with 8 to 12 ft combined seas in NW 
swell off the coast of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro 
through the afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish Wed with
further improvement through Thu. Meanwhile swell in excess of 8 
ft will propagate as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Strong NW winds in the northern Gulf of California will gradually
shift south through Tue night. Gentle breezes and moderate 
combined seas will persist elsewhere through late week, except 
for possibly strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri 
night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tight gradient between high pressure north of the of the 
region and lower pressure over the tropics is supporting fresh to
strong easterly gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and the
Nicaraguan coast. Seas are peaking near 8 ft within these winds.
Moderate N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft persist in the Gulf of
Panama and downstream to about 04N. Light to gentle winds and 
seas at 3 to 5 ft in moderate SW swell prevail for the rest of 
the offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, the larger scale pattern will continue to 
support fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Papagayo region 
and Nicaraguan coast mainly at night through Wed night, with seas
up to 8 ft. These winds will diminish slightly thereafter as the
high pressure shifts east. Fresh winds may pulse into the Gulf 
of Panama today, and then again Fri and Sat. Gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail elsewhere. Moderate long-period southerly 
swell will persist in all the offshore waters through the next 
several days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the deep tropics is supporting fresh to strong N to NE winds
north of 22N, as well as fresh NE to E trade winds west of 125W
and north of 06N. These two fetch areas are combining to create a
large area of 8 to 10 ft combined seas northwest of a line from 
05N135W to 20N115W. Gentle winds and moderate seas in a SW swell 
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds will diminish north of 20N through mid 
week, while fresh to occasionally strong trade winds may persist 
through mid week from 05N to 15N west of 130W. These winds will 
diminish further through Fri as weak high pressure builds near 
28N135W. Large NW reinforcing swell behind the front will 
gradually decay north of 20N by Thu, but combined seas in excess 
of 8 ft may persist from 05N to 20N west of 120W through Fri in a
mix of NW swell and local trade wind seas. Gentle breezes and 
moderate combined seas in a mix of swell will persist elsewhere. 

$$
Flynn