000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040303 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Apr 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 08N95W to 05N95W. The ITCZ continues from 05N95W to 06N110W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N between 110W and 123W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 05N between 88W and 92W, from 04N to 06N between 110W and 120W, and from 04N to 06N between 135W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front currently extends across the northern Gulf of California and to near 25N120W. A recent ship observation confirmed fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte. This is part of a larger area of 20 to 30 kt NW winds off the coast of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, with combined seas 8 to 12 ft north of Punta Eugenia. Strong SW gap winds may be active over the far northern Gulf of California as well along about 30N. Gentle breezes and moderate seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico may be limiting visibility slightly in the coastal waters from Chiapas to Jalisco. For the forecast, the cold front moving through Baja California Norte will dissipate through early Tue. Strong to near-gale force NW winds will follow the front along with 8 to 12 ft combined seas in NW swell off the coast of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro through Tue afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish through mid week, but not before combined seas in excess of 8 ft reach the Revillagigedo Islands. Strong SW gap winds will also push into the northern Gulf of California overnight ahead of the dying front, then shift NW and spread into the central Gulf of California through Tue night. Gentle breezes and moderate combined seas will persist elsewhere through late week, except for possibly strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds are likely persisting across the Papagayo region and Nicaraguan coast. Expect these enhanced winds to extend downwind to about 90W. Seas are peaking near 7 ft in this area. Moderate N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted at the Gulf of Panama and downstream to about 03N. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in moderate SW swell prevail for the rest of the offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region and Nicaraguan coast mainly at night through Wed night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh N winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama tonight, and again Fri and Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the middle of the week. Moderate long-period southerly swell will persist in all the offshore waters through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating cold front is moving southeastward across the waters north of 25N. Recent ship observations and an earlier scatterometer pass found fresh to strong N-NE winds behind the front with moderate N-NE winds ahead of the front. Recent altimeter satellite data and ship observations indicated seas are currently 8 to 12 ft behind the front. A area of fresh to strong trades persist from 05N to 20N west of 125W with altimeter observations of 8 to 11 ft seas in mixed N swell and NE wind waves. Gentle winds and moderate seas in a SW swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will stall and dissipate through early Tue. Winds will diminish north of 20N through mid week, while fresh to occasionally strong trade winds may persist through mid week from 05N to 15N west of 130W. These winds will diminish further through Fri as weak high pressure builds near 28N135W. Large NW reinforcing swell behind the front will gradually decay north of 20N by Thu, but 6 to 9 ft seas may persist from 05N to 20N west of 120W through Thu in a mix of NW swell and local trade wind seas. Gentle breezes and moderate combined seas in a mix of swell will persist elsewhere. $$ Christensen