602 AXPZ20 KNHC 031600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Apr 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N95W to 06N104W. The ITCZ continues from 06N104W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 02N to 06N between 78W and 90W, from 03N to 07N between 95W and 104W, and from 03N to 08N between 116W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front currently extends from the NW corner of Mexico near 31N116W to 29N120W. Behind the front winds are fresh to strong from the N-NW. Seas are currently 5 to 7 ft off Baja California, on a building trend. As the front approaches the northern Gulf of California, fresh westerly winds are funneling into coastal areas along Baja California Norte. Light to gentle breezes are evident off southern Mexico. Combined seas are mostly 3 to 5 ft in these areas. Smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico may be limiting visibility slightly in the coastal waters from Chiapas to Guerrero. For the forecast, marine conditions will deteriorate across the offshore waters of Baja California and in the Gulf of California as a weakening cold front moves across the area today. Expect NW winds of 20 to 25 kt and seas building to 8 to 12 ft in NW swell across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro by tonight, and across the entire offshore areas of Baja California through Tue. Highest seas will be around 15 ft in NW swell near Guadalupe Island early Tue. Seas will subside below 12 ft late Tue. In the Gulf of California, fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front this evening with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh to strong NW will reach the central Gulf by Tue morning, and the southern portion of the Gulf by Tue evening with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle to locally moderate W to NW winds will prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft primarily in SW swell. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds persist across the Papagayo region and Nicaraguan coast and downwind to near 90W with seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted at the Gulf of Panama and downstream to about 04N. There have not been any recent satellite derived or ship observations in the Papagayo area, but reports from Liberia, Costa Rica indicate fresh E winds. This hints that fresh to strong easterly gap winds are ongoing over the nearby Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in moderate SW swell prevail for the rest of the offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region and Nicaraguan coast mainly at night through Tue night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh N winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama tonight, and again Fri and Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the middle of the week. Moderate long-period southerly swell will persist in all the offshore waters the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is moving southeastward across waters north of 25N toward Baja California. Fresh northerly winds follow the front. Gentle to moderate winds are noted ahead of the front. An area of fresh to strong trades persist across the west- central waters with seas of 8 to 11 ft in mixed N swell and NE wind waves. Earlier satellite derived wind data indicated fresh to strong winds from 05N to 20N west of 125W. Gentle winds and moderate combined seas with primarily SW swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will dissipate through Tue as it moves into Baja California. Accompanying northerly swell will move south of 30N later today, with combined seas of 8 to 11 ft covering most of the area north of 20N by late Tue. These combined seas will subside below 8 ft through mid week, leaving residual combined seas in excess of 8 ft from 05N to 20N west of 125W by late Thu, in a mix of local trade wind seas and northerly swell. These combined seas will subside further through Fri, while weak high pressure builds near 28N135W. Of note, the Weather Prediction Center International Desk is expecting a period of heavy rain across parts of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru due to the current sea surface temperatures warming across the eastern Pacific waters, convergence along the ITCZ, and low- level westerly wind bursts. For more information visit the Weather Prediction Center's website at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Flynn