000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030326 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Apr 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N95W to 05N105W. The ITCZ continues from 05105W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 01N to 03N between 90W and 95W, from 09N to 11N between 110W and 115W, and from 04N to 06N between 125W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge that previously was in place along the coast of Baja California has mostly dissipated ahead of a cold front currently moving through southern California and approaching the region from the north. This pattern is supporting generally moderate NW winds off Baja California and the Gulf of California, although fresh NW winds may be funneling close to the coast of Baja California Norte. Light to gentle breezes are evident farther south off southern Mexico. Combined seas are mostly 3 to 5 ft in open waters off Mexico. Smoke from agricultural fires over southern Mexico may be limiting visibility slightly in the coastal waters from Chiapas to Guerrero. For the forecast, marine conditions will deteriorate across the offshore waters of Baja California and in the Gulf of California as a weakening cold front moves across the area Mon. Expect NW winds of 20 to 25 kt and seas building to 8 to 12 ft in NW swell across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro by Mon evening. These weather conditions will dominate all the offshore waters west of Baja California by Tue morning. Highest seas will be around 14 ft in NW swell near Guadalupe Island Mon night into early Tue. Seas will subside below 12 ft by Tue evening. In the Gulf of California, fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front beginning on Mon evening with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh to strong NW will reach the central Gulf by Tue morning, and the southern portion of the Gulf by Tue evening with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle to locally moderate W to NW winds will prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft primarily in SW swell. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds persist across the Papagayo region and Nicaraguan coast and downwind to near 90W with seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted at the Gulf of Panama and downstream to about 04N. There have not been any recent satellite derived or ship observations in the Papagayo area, but reports from Liberia, Costa Rica indicate fresh E winds. This hints that fresh to strong easterly gap winds are ongoing over the nearby Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in moderate SW swell prevail for the rest of the offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region and Nicaraguan coast mainly at night through Tue night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh N winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama tonight and Mon night, and again Fri and Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the middle of the week. Moderate long-period southerly swell will persist in all the offshore waters the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is moving eastward across waters north of 28N and east of 135W toward Baja California. Light to gentle winds are on either side of the front. An area of fresh to strong trades persist across the west- central waters with seas of 8 to 11 ft in mixed N swell and NE wind waves. Earlier satellite derived wind data indicated fresh to strong winds from 05N to 20N west of 125W. Gentle winds and moderate combined seas with primarily SW swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, a cold front is moving southeastward across the waters north of 28N and east of 130W. High pressure building in the wake of the front is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and 8 to 11 ft combined seas from 05N to 20N west of 120W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere with mostly 5 to 7 ft combined seas in mixed swell. For the forecast, the front will dissipate through Tue as it moves into Baja California. Accompanying northerly swell will move south of 30N Mon, with combined seas of 8 to 11 ft covering most of the area north of 20N by late Tue. These combined seas will subside below 8 ft through mid week, leaving residual combined seas in excess of 8 ft from 05N to 20N west of 125W by late Thu, in a mix of local trade wind seas and northerly swell. These combined seas will subside further through Fri, while weak high pressure builds near 28N135W. Of note, NWS/Weather Prediction Center International Desk is expecting a period of heavy rain across parts of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru due to the current sea surface temperatures warming across the eastern Pacific waters, convergence along the ITCZ, and low- level westerly wind bursts. For more information visit the Weather Prediction Center's website at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Christensen