000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022107
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Apr 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to  
09N87W to 07N100W. The ITCZ continues from 07N100W to 06N120W to
beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
can be found from 04N to 09N between 95W and 105W, and from 05N 
to 10N W of 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting mainly moderate NW to N winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft.
Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are 
noted over the southern portion of the Gulf of California, between
the ridge and lower pressure over central Mexico. Light to gentle
winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters
with seas generally in the 3 to 5 ft range due to SW swell.

For the forecast, marine conditions will deteriorate across the
offshore waters of Baja California, and in the Gulf of California
as a weakening cold front moves across the area on Mon. Expect 
NW winds of 20 to 25 kt and seas building to 8 to 12 ft in NW 
swell across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Mon evening. 
These weather conditions will dominate all the offshore waters W 
of Baja California by Tue morning. At this time, seas are forecast
to peak 14 or 15 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia. Seas associated
with this swell event are expected to subside below 12 ft by Tue
evening. In the Gulf of California, fresh to strong winds are 
expected on either side of the front beginning on Mon evening 
with seas building to 8 ft. Fresh to strong NW will reach the 
central Gulf by Tue morning, and the southern portion of the Gulf
by Tue evening with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Elsewhere 
across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle to locally moderate W 
to NW winds will prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft primarily in SW 
swell.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds persist across the Papagayo region 
and Nicaraguan coast and downwind to near 91W with seas to 9 ft.
Gentle to moderate N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted at 
the Gulf of Panama and downstream to about 04N. The most recent
scatterometer data confirmed the wind speeds in both Gulfs. Light
to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in moderate SW swell prevail
for the rest of the offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are expected in 
the Papagayo region and Nicaraguan coast mainly at night through 
Tue night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail the 
remainder of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh N winds are 
forecast in the Gulf of Panama through Mon night, and again Fri 
and Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere 
through the middle of the week. Moderate long-period southerly 
swell will persist in all the offshore waters the next several 
days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is moving across the NW corner of the forecast region
and extends from 31N126W to 29N140W. Light to gentle winds are on
either side of the front. An area of fresh to strong trades 
persist across the west- central waters with seas of 8 to 11 ft 
in mixed N swell and NE wind waves. Satellite derived wind data 
indicate fresh to strong winds from 08N to 20N W of 130W, and 
from 07N to 18N between 120W and 130W. Gentle to moderate winds
are on both side of the ITCZ W of 110W. Gentle winds and moderate
combined seas with primarily SW swell are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to dissipate as it
moves southward over the northern forecast waters over the next
couple of days. This system will bring an increase in wind and
seas across the waters N of 20N W of 110W through at least Tue. 
A new swell event will follow the front, reaching the NE waters 
on Mon, then will propagate mainly across the waters north of 
23N and E of 130W on Tue morning. At this time, seas of 8 to 12 
ft will prevail roughly N of 23N and E of 135W, with higher seas 
in the 12 to 15 ft range dominating the waters N of 29N and E of
122W. The aerial extent of the trades will decrease some on Mon 
as the cold front moves across the N waters, but will increase 
again Mon night into Tue as high pressure in the wake of the 
front builds across the forecast region. 

Of note, WPC International Desk is forecasting a period of heavy
rain across parts of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru due to the 
current SST warming across the eastern Pacific waters, the ITCZ
and low-level westerly wind bursts. For more information visit 
the Weather Prediction Center's website at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

$$
GR