245 
AXPZ20 KNHC 021541
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Apr 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to  
06N82W to 07N88W to 06N96W. The ITCZ continues from 06N96W to 
06N120W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection can be found from 01N to 06N E of 80W to the coast of
Colombia, from 05N to 09N between 95W and 105W, and from 04N to 
08N between 122W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting mainly moderate NW to N winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft.
Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are 
evident over the southern portion of the Gulf of California, 
between the ridge and lower pressure over central Mexico. Light 
to gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican 
offshore waters with seas generally in the 3 to 5 ft range due to
SW swell.

For the forecast, a cold front will bring increasing winds and 
building seas N of Punta Eugenia on Mon. Expect NW winds of 20 to
25 kt and seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell by Mon evening. These 
marine conditions will reach the waters between Cabo San Lazaro 
and Punta Eugenia by Mon night, and dominate all the offshore
waters W of Baja California by Tue morning. At this time, fresh 
to strong NW winds are also expected in the wake of the front 
over the north and central Gulf of California with seas of 5 to 
8 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds will reach the southern Gulf of
California late on Tue. Seas are forecast to peak 13 or 14 ft in
NW swell N of Punta Eugenia Tue morning. Seas associated with 
this swell event are expected to subside below 12 ft by Tue 
evening. Elsewhere, little change in the weather pattern is 
expected. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds persist across the Papagayo region 
and Nicaraguan coast and downwind to near 90W with seas to 9 ft.
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are 
noted at the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 05N based on 
earlier scatterometer data. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 
to 6 ft in moderate SW swell prevail for the rest of the offshore
forecast waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected in the 
Papagayo region and Nicaraguan coast mainly at night through Thu 
Thu, with seas likely building to 8 or 9 ft. Gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail elsewhere through the middle of the week. 
Moderate long-period southerly swell will persist in all the 
offshore waters the next several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is moving south of 30N between 130W and 140W. An 
earlier altimeter satellite pass confirmed the presence of 8 to 
11 ft combined seas across the west-central waters, particularly 
from 08N to 20N W of 130W. These seas are the result of northerly
swell combined with NE wind wave. The enhanced trade winds are 
due to high pressure building north of the front, tightening the 
pressure gradient over the tropical east Pacific waters. Gentle 
breezes and moderate combined seas with primarily SW swell are 
noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the areal extent of the trades will increase 
farther east today as the high pressure north of the area 
strengthens some.  A new swell event will reach the NE waters on
Mon, and propagate mainly across the waters north of 23N and E of
130W on Tue morning. At this time, seas of 8 to 12 ft will 
prevail roughly N of 23N and E of 135W, with higher seas in the
12 to 14 ft range dominating the waters N of 28N and E of 121W.

$$
GR