000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011526
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Apr 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 07N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N90W to 03N110W to 05N127W. A surface trough is
analyzed along 131W/132W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is evident from 03N to 07N between 107W and 124W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds with seas of 5 to 8
ft...highest just N of Clarion Island. Moderate to fresh NW 
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident over the southern portion
of the Gulf of California, between the ridge and lower pressure 
over central Mexico. Gentle breezes are noted farther south, with
seas generally in the 3 to 5 ft range due to SW swell.

For the forecast, the ridge across the region will support mostly
moderate NW winds across the waters north of 20N. Large NW swell
to 8 ft off Baja California Sur beyond 90 nm will subside later 
today. Gentle breezes and moderate combined seas will persist 
farther south. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again 
west of Baja California and in the Gulf of California Mon through
mid week as another cold front approaches the region from the 
north. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are blowing across the Papagayo
region and downwind to near 90W with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to 
fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the Gulf of 
Panama. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate S
swell prevail for the rest of offshore zones.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will continue to
support fresh to strong easterly gap winds across the Gulf of
Papagayo and Nicaraguan coast through Tue, and fresh NE gap
winds at the Gulf of Panama through Mon. Winds at Papagayo may
peak at near-gale force at night. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere through midweek next week. Moderate long-period
southerly swell will persist in all the offshore waters the next
several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge across the northern forecast waters is supporting a 
large area of fresh to strong trade winds from 08N to 20N W of 
125W, where seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow is seen N of 25N W of 120W. Gentle breezes are
noted east of 120W and south of 05N, with 4 to 6 ft seas in 
mixed NW and S swell. 

For the forecast, the aerial extent of the trades will increase
farther E on Sun as the high pressure N of the area strengthens 
some. Looking ahead, a new group of northerly swell will enter 
waters north of 25N starting Mon evening into Tue following 
another cold front moving into the region.

$$
GR