000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010916
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Apr 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N85W to 04N100W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N100W to 06N130W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 04N to 06N east of 80W, and
from 09N to 11N between 125W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Weak ridging extends across the offshore waters of Baja
California, supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds. A
recent altimeter satellite pass from around 02 UTC indicated 
combined seas to 8 ft to Clarion Island. This is part of a 
larger area of 7 to 8 ft combined off beyond 90 nm off Baja 
California Sur which will subside below 8 ft through late today.
Moderate to fresh NW winds are evident over the southern portion
of the Gulf of California, between the ridge and lower pressure 
over central Mexico. Gentle breezes are evident farther south, 
with moderate combined seas primarily in SW swell. 

For the forecast, the weak ridging across the region will support mostly
moderate NW winds across the region north of 20N. Large NW swell
to 8 ft off Baja California Sur beyond 90 nm will subside later 
today. Gentle breezes and moderate combined seas will persist 
farther south. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again 
west of Baja California and in the Gulf of California Mon 
through mid week as another cold front approaches the region from
the north. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent satellite scatterometer and altimeter derived data 
indicated fresh to strong ENE winds with 6 to 9 ft seas
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh NE winds 
and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the Gulf of Panama. Light to 
gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate S swell prevail 
for the rest of offshore zones.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will continue to
support fresh to strong easterly gap winds across the Gulf of
Papagayo and Nicaraguan coast through Tue, and fresh NE gap
winds at the Gulf of Panama through Mon. Winds at Papagayo may
peak at near-gale force at night. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere through midweek next week. Moderate long-period
southerly swell will persist in all the offshore waters the next
several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A subtropical ridge north of 25N related to a 1026 mb high 
pressure off southern California is supporting a large area of 
moderate to fresh NE to ENE trade winds from 05N to 20N west of 
120W, with 7 to 10 ft combined seas in a mix of local wind waves
and mostly longer- range NW swell. Gentle to moderate N to ENE 
winds with seas at 6 to 7 ft in decaying NW swell are evident 
north of 23N west of 120W. Gentle breezes are noted east of 120W 
and south of 05N, with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed NW and S swell. 
Divergent flow aloft related to a broad upper trough along 120W
is supporting scattered moderate convection from 05N to 11N 
between 110W and 115W. 

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will strenghten further
through Sun and cause trades from 05N to 20N west of 120W to 
become fresh to strong. Looking ahead, a new group of northerly 
swell will enter waters north of 25N starting late Mon night or 
early Tue following another cold front moving into the region.

$$
Christensen