000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310326
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Mar 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 03N100W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N100W to 06N122W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 03N to 07N between 85W and 90W, and
from 08N to 10N between 112W and 118W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Combined seas of 8 to 11 ft with a component of NW swell 
continue to propagate into the waters off Baja California north
of Punta Eugenia. The highest seas are likely on the north side
of Guadalupe Island. Moderate to fresh NW winds are also evident
off Baja California, following a weakening cold front currently
extending from southeast Arizona, across the central Gulf of
California, then southwestward into the eastern Pacific near
21N125W. Elsewhere, gentle breezes persist with 4 to 6 ft
combined seas in open waters primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, the cold front moving into the central Gulf of
California and northern Baja California Sur will dissipate
overnight. NW swell in excess of 8 ft follows the dying front
north of Punta Eugenia. Combined seas will subside below 8 ft
through Sun, although not before reaching the Revillagigedo 
Islands by late Sat. Gentle breezes and moderate combined seas
will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, winds and seas will 
increase again west of Baja California and the Gulf of California
Mon through mid week as another cold front approaches the region.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Convergent surface winds are coupling with divergent winds at the
upper-level to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms between Costa Rica and the Galapagos Islands. 
Recent ship observations indicated at least fresh winds off the
Gulf of Papagayo, where seas may be reaching 8 ft. Light to 
gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate S swell prevail 
for the rest of offshore zones.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will 
continue to support fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and Nicaraguan coast through Tue. Fresh to strong 
northerly gap winds through the Gulf of Panama will gradually 
diminish through Mon. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere through midweek next week. Moderate long-period 
southerly swell will persist in all the offshore waters the next 
several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface ridge is in place north of 25N and west of 125W,
centered by 1025 mb high pressure near 31N127W, following the
dissipating cold front moving through Baja California. This
pattern is supporting a large area of moderate to fresh trade
winds from 05N to 20N west of 120W, with 6 to 8 ft combined seas
in a mix of local wind seas and mostly longer-range NW swell.
Larger 8 to 10 ft NW swell is moving into the waters north of
20N. Gentle breezes are noted east of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft seas
in mixed swell. A broad upper trough along 120W extends into the
tropical waters. Divergence aloft east of this trough combined
with convergent trade winds are supporting scattered moderate
showers and thunderstorms 08N to 10N between 112W and 118W.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will build north of the
area through the early to middle part of next week. A surface
trough will form along 120W related to the upper trough, and this
feature will move eastward through Sun. The combination of these
two patterns will support increased trade winds over tropical
waters west of 125W Sun and Mon, with 8 to 11 ft combined seas.
Looking ahead, a new group of northerly swell will enter waters
north of 25N starting late Mon night or early Tue following
another cold front moving into the region.

$$
Christensen