000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302216 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Mar 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends southwestward from near the Panama/Colombia border across 07N86W to 04N95W. An ITCZ continues westward from 04N95W to 06N116W, then from 06N120W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered showers are present along either side, up to 50 nm of the trough, and up to 150 nm of the ITCZ. A second surface trough is between the ITCZs near 07N116W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the second trough from 03N to 11N between 113W and 118W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front curves southwestward from the northern Gulf of California across southern Baja Sur to 22N128W. A recent ASCAT satellite scatterometer indicates moderate to fresh N to NW winds behind this front across offshore waters west of Baja California and at the northern Gulf of California. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are seen west of Baja Norte, and 6 to 8 ft west of Baja Sur, both in NW swell. Seas in the Gulf of California range from 3 to 5 ft, mainly composed of wind waves. Gentle to moderate NW to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the offshore waters of central Mexico. A surface trough is combining with divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered moderate convection offshore from Chiapas State, southern Mexico. Otherwise, light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly swell prevail at the offshore waters of southern Mexico. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the entrance to the Gulf of California across Cabo San Lucas to 18N130W later tonight before dissipating Fri morning. Moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front will persist offshore west of Baja Peninsula, and at the central Gulf of California through Fri. Large NW swell will impact west of Baja California through Fri morning, then decrease to moderate Fri night or early Sat morning. Offshore from central Mexico, moderate northerly winds and seas should continue through early next week. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again west of Baja California and the Gulf of California early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Convergent surface winds are coupling with divergent winds at the upper-level to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and offshore from Costa Rica/western Panama. Earlier ASCAT satellite scatterometer wind data this afternoon shows fresh to locally strong winds at the Gulf of Papagayo and Panama offshore areas. Seas are at 6 to 8 ft at Papagayo and 5 to 7 ft at Panama waters. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate S swell prevail for the rest of offshore zones. For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region will continue to bring fresh to strong gap winds to the Papagayo and Panama offshore areas through Mon. Winds at Papagayo will pulse to near-gale force at nights. Winds at both areas should become moderate to fresh by Mon evening. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through midweek next week. Moderate long-period southerly swell will persist in all the offshore waters the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front extends from southern Baja Sur to 22N128W. Gentle to moderate northerly winds with 8 to 10 ft seas in large NW swell are present behind this front, north of 21N west of 118W. Moderate with locally fresh NE to ESE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted from 05N to 21N, west of 105W/115W. East of 110W, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from the entrance to the Gulf of California across Cabo San Lucas to 18N130W later tonight before dissipating Fri morning. Large NW swell will continue spreading southward through Fri night while gradually subsiding in magnitude. Looking ahead, trade winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds this weekend west of 125W, from 10N to 20N. $$ Forecaster Chan