000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300931
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Mar 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 07N87W to 03N95W. The 
ITCZ extends from 03N95W to 05N107W to 04N122W to 02N130W to
03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 01N to 09N between 113W and 129W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front is entering the far northern Gulf of California and
currently extends from 32N114W to 29N116W to 24N124W to 23N132W
to 24N140W. A recent ASCAT satellite wind data pass shows strong
to near gale force SW winds in the northern Gulf of California,
ahead of the front. Seas are likely 6 to 7 ft in this area. Fresh
WNW winds are occurring west of Baja California Norte, behind the
front. Seas increase from 5 ft near the front to 11 ft well
offshore near 30N121W, in large NW swell. Moderate NW winds and
seas of 4-5 ft prevail off Baja California Sur, in advance of the
front. In the southern Gulf of California, winds are gentle to
locally moderate with 1-3 ft seas. Strong N winds are occurring
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 8 ft. These conditions
extend southward to near 13N95W. Elsewhere E of 110W, wind speeds
are gentle and seas are 4-5 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front that currently extends from the
far northern Gulf of California near 32N114W to 29N116W to
24N124W to 23N132W will reach from the entrance to the Gulf of
California to Cabo San Lucas to 20N120W by 1200 UTC on early Fri
morning before the front dissipates by late Fri morning. The 
strong to near gale force SW winds over the northern Gulf of 
California will persist through mid-morning today, with seas up
to 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the wake of the 
front through early this evening over the northern Gulf. Fresh 
NW winds will continue through today west of Baja California 
Norte behind the front, spreading southward to west of Baja
California Sur later this morning through early Fri morning. 
Large NW swell will increase west of Baja California today and
tonight behind the front. Conditions will improve for the 
weekend. Elsewhere, strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are
forecast to continue through this morning with seas to 8 ft.
Looking ahead, winds and seas are forecast to increase
significantly early next week offshore Baja California Norte and
in the northern Gulf of California as strengthening high 
pressure NW of the area combines with much lower pressures over 
the U.S. Great Basin. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An ASCAT satellite wind data pass from 30/0241 UTC shows strong 
winds over the Gulf of Papagayo offshore region. Currently, these
strong ENE winds likely extend downwind to 90W. Seas are 7 to 9 
ft within the strong wind area. Fresh to strong N winds prevail 
across the Gulf of Panama extending southward to 04N. Seas are 6 
to 7 ft in this area. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas 
4-6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region
will continue to bring strong to locally near gale force gap
winds to the Papagayo region through Sun night. Seas will peak
around 8 to 10 ft during the mornings. Fresh to strong N winds 
are expected across and downwind of the Gulf of Panama, strongest
at night, through Fri night, with winds only diminishing 
slightly to fresh for the remainder of the weekend. Seas there
will peak around 7 to 8 ft during the morning in the vicinity of
06N80W. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through 
the forecast period. Moderate long-period S to SW swell will 
continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters through
Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front currently extends from 29N116W to 24N124W to 
23N132W to 24N140W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are N of the 
front. Seas of 8 to 14 ft in N swell are north of 25N, north of 
the front, with the highest seas located near 30N126W. Fresh 
trade winds prevail N of the ITCZ to about 21N W of 127W, with 
seas of 7 to 9 ft. E of 110W, gentle to moderate winds prevail 
with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Cabo San 
Lucas, Mexico to 20N120W and dissipating to 20N130W by 1200 UTC 
on early Fri morning before the front dissipates by late Fri 
morning. Large N swell will continue to follow the front. This 
swell event will dominate the waters N of 20N by late today, 
then continue spreading southward through Fri night while 
gradually subsiding in magnitude. Looking ahead, trade winds are 
forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds this weekend west 
of 125W, from 10N to 20N.

$$
Hagen