000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300353 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Mar 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 07N88W to 05N95W. The ITCZ begins near 05N95W to 05N118W, then continues W of a surface trough from 03N125W to 04N140W. A surface trough extends from 08N117W to 00N123W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 111W and 118W, and from 01.5N to 07N between 118W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Baja California Norte near 31N116W to 25N129W to 27N140W. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail NW of the front. NW swell is starting to reach the waters west of Baja California Norte, where seas have recently built to 6 to 8 ft. Fresh to strong SW winds in advance of the front are beginning now over the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate NW winds prevail offshore Baja California Sur. Strong northerly winds are found in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 7 ft. Gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front that currently extends from Baja California Norte near 31N116W to 26N124W will move into the northern Gulf of California later tonight. The front will reach from the southern Gulf of California to Todos Santos late Thu night before dissipating early on Fri. The fresh to strong SW winds over the northern Gulf of California will increase to strong to near gale force later tonight and persist through early Thu, with seas building to 7 ft. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the wake of the front through early Thu evening. Fresh NW winds are expected west of Baja California Norte behind the front Thu. Large NW swell will increase west of Baja California Thu and Thu night behind the front. Conditions will improve for the weekend. Elsewhere, strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are forecast to continue through Thu morning due to a ridge located across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Seas are forecast to build to 8 ft tonight. Looking ahead, winds and seas are forecast to increase early next week offshore Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California as strengthening high pressure NW of the area combines with much lower pressures over the U.S. Great Basin. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong ENE to E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region extending downwind to 89W this evening, and seas have built to 7 to 8 ft. Fresh to strong N winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama extending southward, with seas to 6 ft. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas 4-6 ft. For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region will bring an increase in winds and seas across the gap wind areas tonight. These stronger pulsing winds will occur through at least Fri night. Strong winds are expected most of the time in the Papagayo region, pulsing to locally near gale force at night. Seas are expected to build to 8-10 ft late tonight into Thu morning, and again late Thu night into Fri morning. Fresh to locally strong N winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama at night, tonight through Fri night. Seas will build to 7-8 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama to near 04N81W on Thu morning and Fri morning. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Moderate long-period S to SW swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters through much of the work-week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 31N116W to 25N129W to 27N140W. Fresh NW to N winds are N of the front. Seas of 8 to 14 ft in N swell are north of 26.5N, north of the front, with the highest seas located near 30N128W. Fresh trade winds prevail N of the ITCZ to about 22N W of 128W, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. E of 110W, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Punta Eugenia, Mexico to 22N130W to 23N140W by 1200 UTC Thu morning, from Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico to 20N132W Thu evening, then dissipate Fri morning. Large N swell will continue to follow the front. This swell event will dominate the waters N of 20N by late Thu, then continue spreading southward through Fri night while gradually subsiding in magnitude. Looking ahead, trade winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds this weekend west of 125W, from 10N to 20N. $$ Hagen