000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292207
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Mar 29 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N84W to 08N89W. The ITCZ begins 
near 03N88W to 06N104W to 04N120W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 96W and 121W, and 
from 02S to 06N E of 86W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weakening surface ridge extending to the Baja California 
Peninsula continue to support gentle to locally moderate NW 
winds across the peninsula offshore waters, with seas of 4-5 ft.
In the Gulf of California, winds are light to gentle with 1-2 ft
seas, increasing to 3 ft at the entrance of the gulf. A gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting fresh to strong N
to NE winds and seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are
elesewhere along the SW Mexican offshore waters with seas of 4-6
ft in NW swell.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the waters west of 
Baja California Norte this evening and then move into the 
northern Gulf of California tonight. The front will reach from 
the southern Gulf of California to Cabo San Lazaro late Thu night
before dissipating early Fri. Strong to near gale force SW winds
and seas building to 8 ft are expected over the northern Gulf of
California in advance of the front tonight into Thu morning, 
with fresh to strong W to NW winds in the wake of the front 
through early Thu evening. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are 
expected west of Baja California Norte behind the front Thu. 
Large NW swell will return to the Baja California offshore waters
Thu and Thu night behind the front. Conditions will improve for 
the weekend. Elsewhere, strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
are forecast to continue through Thu morning as a ridge develops
across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in 
Mexico. Seas are forecast to build to 9 ft downstream of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec to near 13N96W by Thu morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region
extending downwind to 92W this evening. Seas in these waters are
6 to 8 ft. Fresh N winds are along the Gulf of Panama with seas 
to 6 ft. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere offshore Central America.
Light to gentle winds are occurring between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands, where seas are 5-6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region
will bring an increase in winds and seas across the gap wind 
areas tonight. These stronger pulsing winds will occur through 
at least Fri night. Strong winds are expected most of the time 
in the Papagayo region, pulsing to locally near gale force at 
night. Seas are expected to build to 8-10 ft late tonight into 
Thu morning, and again late Thu night into Fri morning. Fresh to 
locally strong N winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama at 
night, tonight through Fri night. Seas will build to 7-8 ft 
downwind of the Gulf of Panama to near 04N81W on Thu morning and 
Fri morning. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere 
through the forecast period. Moderate period SW swell will continue
to propagate across the offshore forecast waters through much of
the work-week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh trade winds prevail N of the ITCZ to about 22N W of 130W. 
with seas of 7 to 9 ft. A cold front extends from 30N119W to 
25N129W to 24N140W. Fresh N winds are N of the front with 
building seas of 8 to 13 ft. A weakening and narrowing ridge of 
high pressure is oriented east-west just south of the front with
gentle winds near the ridge axis. E of 110W, gentle to moderate 
winds prevail with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from 30N112W to 
26N114W to 20N130W to 21N140W by Thu evening while weakening. A 
significant swell event will follow the front. Seas in excess of 
8 ft will propagate across the northern forecast waters tonight,
building to 8 to 14 ft N of 24N by 1200 UTC Thu. This swell 
event will dominate much of the waters N of 20N by late Thu, then
continue spreading southward through Fri night while gradually 
subsiding in magnitude. Looking ahead, trade winds are forecast 
to increase to fresh to strong speeds this weekend west of 125W, 
from 10N to 20N.

$$
Ramos