000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290954 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Mar 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from SE Panama near 08N78W to 07N93W. The ITCZ continues from 07N93W to 06N110W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 95W and 124W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the coast of SW Colombia and NW Ecuador. Additional scattered strong convection is located just inland over portions of SW Colombia and western Ecuador. These storms could lead to localized areas of moderate flash flooding through the next few days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening surface ridge along 26/27N is leading to moderate NNW winds west of Baja California, with seas of 4-6 ft. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle, except for locally moderate NW winds over the southern Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft over the southern Gulf of California and 1-2 ft over the northern Gulf. A recent ASCAT satellite wind data pass shows gentle to moderate N winds elsewhere west of 106W, where seas are 5-6 ft. Gentle winds with 4-5 ft seas are noted east of 106W. For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to enter the waters west of Baja California Norte around midday today and then move into the northern Gulf of California tonight. The front will reach from the southern Gulf of California to Cabo San Lazaro late Thu night before dissipating early Fri. Strong to near gale force SW winds and seas building to 8 ft are expected over the northern Gulf of California in advance of the front tonight into Thu morning, with fresh to strong W to NW winds in the wake of the front through Thu evening. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected west of Baja California Norte behind the front Thu. Large NW swell will return to the Baja California offshore waters Thu and Thu night behind the front. Conditions will improve for the weekend. Elsewhere, strong N winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning early this morning and lasting through Thu morning as a ridge develops across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Seas are forecast to build to 9 ft downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near 13N96W by Thu morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. These winds will extend downwind to 90W this morning. Seas in these waters are 6 to 7 ft, but will build to 8 ft this morning. Scatterometer data from 29/0300 UTC show fresh N winds covering the Gulf of Panama. Seas over this area are up to 6 ft. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere offshore Central America. Light to gentle winds are occurring between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, where seas are 5-6 ft in long period S to SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region will bring an increase in winds and seas across the gap wind areas by tonight. These stronger pulsing winds will occur through at least Fri night. Strong NE to E winds are forecast in the Papagayo region through this morning. Afterward, strong winds are expected most of the time, pulsing to locally near gale force at night. Seas are expected to build to 8-10 ft late tonight into Thu morning, and again late Thu night into Fri morning. Fresh to locally strong N winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama at night, tonight through Fri night. Seas will build to 7-8 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama to near 04N81W on Thu morning and Fri morning. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Moderate long period SW swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters through much of the work-week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh trade winds are present N of the ITCZ to about 21N W of 127W, according to recent scatterometer data. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in the area of the trade winds over the west-central waters. A cold front has entered the area, and currently extends from 30N126W to 28N134W to 29N140W. Fresh N winds are N of the front with building seas of 6 to 7 ft. A weakening and narrowing ridge of high pressure is oriented east-west just south of the front, along 26/27N, with gentle winds near the ridge axis. E of 110W, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from 30N119W to 25N130W to 25N140W by this afternoon, and from 30N112W to 26N114W to 20N130W to 21N140W by Thu evening while weakening. A significant swell event will follow the front. Seas in excess of 8 ft will propagate across the northern forecast waters this afternoon and tonight, building to 8 to 14 ft N of 24N by 1200 UTC Thu. This swell event will dominate much of the waters N of 20N by late Thu, then continue spreading southward through Fri night while gradually subsiding in magnitude. Looking ahead, trade winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds this weekend west of 125W, from 10N to 20N. $$ Hagen