236 
AXPZ20 KNHC 282127
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Mar 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to
04N90W. The ITCZ continues from 04N90W to 07N105W to 04N120W to 
02N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 02N to 06N between 110W and 122W, and from 01N to 06N
between 122W and 135W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas area 5 to 7 ft.
In the Gulf of California, a recent scatterometer pass indicates
fresh to locally strong NW winds across the central Gulf while  
moderate to fresh NW winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft
over the central and southern Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft across the
northern part. Gentle to moderate N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft 
prevail from the entrance of the Gulf of California to Cabo 
Corrientes. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 
ft are noted east of 105W.

For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to enter the waters 
west of Baja California Norte on Wed and then move into the 
northern Gulf of California Wed night. The front will reach the 
southern Gulf of California late Thu night before dissipating 
early Fri. Strong to near gale force SW winds and building to
near 8 ft are likely over the northern Gulf of California in 
advance of the front Wed night into Thu, with fresh to strong W 
to NW winds in the wake of the front through Thu evening. Fresh 
to strong NW winds are expected west of Baja California Norte 
behind the front Thu. Large NW swell will return to the Baja 
California offshore waters Thu and Thu night behind the front. 
Strong N winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed 
through Thu morning as a ridge develops across the eastern slopes
of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. Seas are forecast to 
build to 10 or 11 ft downstream of the Gulf to near 13N95W by Thu
morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo
region, extending downwind to 90W. Seas in these waters are 6 to
7 ft. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama. Moderate or 
weaker winds and slight seas are noted per scatterometer data  
in the rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region
will bring an increase in winds and seas across the gap wind 
areas by Wed night. Strong NE to E winds are forecast in the 
Papagayo region mainly at night and into the early morning hours 
through Wed morning. Afterward, strong winds are expected most of
the time, pulsing to locally near gale force at night. Seas up 
to 7 ft are expected with these winds through tonight, building 
to 8 to 10 ft by Wed night into Thu. Fresh N winds will prevail 
in the Gulf of Panama beginning tonight through the forecast 
period, with fresh to locally strong winds Wed night and Thu 
night. Seas will build to 7 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama to 
near 04N81W on Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere through the forecast period. Long period SW swell will 
propagate across the offshore forecast waters through much of the
work-week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds are present N of the ITCZ to about  
15N W of 120W. Seas have subsided to 8 to 9 ft in the area of the
trades winds over the west-central waters. Over the NW corner of
the forecast region, a high pressure center is producing a light
to gentle anticyclonic flow. Seas are 4 to 6 ft there. E of 110W,
gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas generally in the 5 to
7 ft range between 95W and 110W.

For the forecast, a new cold front will move south of 30N and 
enter the forecast region by this evening. the front will reach
from 30N120W to 25N130W to 25N140W by Wed afternoon, and from  
31N113W to 27N114W to 21N130W to 21N140W by Thu evening while
weakening. This is the same front forecast to affect the waters W
of Baja California and the Gulf of California. A significant 
swell event will follow the front. Seas in excess of 8 ft will
propagate across the northern forecast waters on Wed, building 
to 8 to 13 ft N of 26N and W of 120W by Wed night. This swell 
event will dominate much of the waters N of 20N and W of 115W by 
Thu evening.

$$
GR