000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280944 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Mar 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N85W to 06N94W. The ITCZ continues from 06N94W to 07N101W to 06N115W to 03N130W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 110W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high pressure center located near 28N131W dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate N winds. Recent altimeter data show seas of 8 to 9 ft well offshore Baja California Sur in NW swell. The altimeter data show 6 to 7 ft seas offshore Baja California Norte. An ASCAT satellite data pass from 28/0508 UTC shows fresh NW to NNW winds across the entire Gulf of California, with some strong winds in the central Gulf of California. Seas are 4-6 ft over the central Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere over the Gulf. Moderate N winds prevail from the entrance of the Gulf of California to Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail near the coast there, with 7 to 8 ft seas well offshore, to the west of 108W. Elsewhere, Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail east of 105W. For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish across the offshore waters of Baja California today. Fresh to locally strong NW winds over the Gulf of California will diminish this afternoon. A cold front is forecast to enter the waters west of Baja California Norte Wed morning and then move into the northern Gulf of California Wed night. The front will reach the southern Gulf of California late Thu night before dissipating early Fri. Strong to near gale force SW winds are likely over the northern Gulf of California in advance of the front Wed night into Thu, with fresh to strong W winds behind the front Thu night. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected west of Baja California Norte behind the front Thu. Large NW swell will return to the Baja California offshore waters Thu and Thu night in the wake of the front. Strong N winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed through Thu morning as a ridge develops across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downwind to 89W. Seas in these waters are 6 to 7 ft. Moderate N winds are over the Gulf of Panama. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent in the rest of the forecast waters. For the forecast, strong NE to E winds are forecast in the Papagayo region mainly at night and into the early morning hours through Wed morning. Afterward, strong winds are expected most of the time, pulsing to locally near gale force at night, as high pressure builds N of the area. Seas up to 7 ft are expected with these winds through tonight, then 8-9 ft by late Wed night. Fresh N winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama beginning Tue night through the forecast period, with fresh to locally strong winds Wed night and Thu night. Seas will build to 7 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama late in the work week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Long period SW swell will propagate across the offshore forecast waters through much of the work-week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh to locally strong trade winds are present north of the ITCZ to about 22N and W of 127W. The combination of NW swell and the shorter period NE to E trade wind swell is producing combined seas of 8-10 ft generally from 03N to 23N between 111W and 140W. Gentle and variable winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail over the northern waters N of 25N and W of 125W due to a 1025 mb high pressure, currently centered near 28N131W. E of 110W, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas generally in the 5 to 7 ft range between 95W and 110W. For the forecast, seas will continue to diminish across the waters W of 110W over the next couple of days as northerly swell decays. A new cold front will move south of 30N and enter the forecast region late today, reach from 30N122W to 26N133W to 27N140W early Wed, and from 31N113W to 21N133W to 22N140W early Thu before weakening and dissipating Thu night. A significant swell event will follow the front building seas to 8 to 14 ft N of 25N by Wed night. This swell event will dominate much of the waters N of 20N by Thu afternoon. $$ Hagen