000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280404 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Mar 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0320 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N85W to 07N90W. The ITCZ continues from 07N90W to 06N100W to 04N110W to 03N130W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 07N between 116W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high pressure center located near 29N132W dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh N winds. Seas are 7 to 9 ft west of Baja California, in NW swell. Strong NW winds are occurring over the central Gulf of California, with mainly fresh winds elsewhere over the Gulf. Seas are 5-6 ft over the strong wind area and 3-5 ft elsewhere over the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail across the offshore Mexican waters east of 105W. For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to diminish across the offshore waters of Baja California tonight into Tue, as the above mentioned high pressure dissipates ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the waters west of Baja California Norte Wed morning. Fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of California will gradually diminish Tue afternoon. The cold front will move into the northern Gulf of California Wed night. Strong to near gale force SW winds are likely over the northern Gulf of California in advance of the front Wed night into Thu. At the same time, fresh to strong NW winds are expected west of Baja California Norte behind the front. Large NW swell will return to the Baja California offshore waters Thu and Thu night in the wake of the front. A brief gap wind event is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night into Thu as a ridge develops across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are developing again tonight in Gulf of Papagayo region, and will spread downwind to 89W after midnight. Seas in these waters are near 6 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds are over the Gulf of Panama. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent in the rest of the forecast waters. For the forecast, strong NE to E winds are forecast in the Papagayo region mainly at night through Wed, then afterward strong winds are expected most of the time, pulsing to locally near gale force at night, as high pressure builds N of the area. Seas of 6-7 ft are expected mainly at night before Wed, then 7-9 ft by Wed night. Fresh N winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama beginning Tue night through the forecast period, with building seas of 6 to 8 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama late in the work week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Long period SW swell will propagate across the offshore forecast waters through much of the work- week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh trade winds are present north of the ITCZ to about 21N and W of 125W. The combination of the NW swell and the shorter period NE to E trade wind swell is producing combined seas of 8-10 ft generally from 03N to 23N between 111W and 140W. Gentle and variable winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail over the northern waters N of 26N and W of 126W due to a 1024 mb high pressure, currently centered near 29N132W. E of 110W, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas generally in the 4 to 7 ft range between 95W and 110W. For the forecast, seas will continue to diminish across the waters W of 110W over the next couple of days as northerly swell decays. A new cold front will enter the forecast region late on Tue, and move across the north waters through late Wed or Wed night while weakening. A significant swell event will follow the front building seas to 8 to 14 ft N of 25N by Wed night. This swell event will dominate much of the waters N of 20N by Thu afternoon. $$ Hagen