000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272133 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Mar 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N75W to 05N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 06N115W to 04N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 100W and 111W, and from 03N to 06N between 124W and 138W. A second and active ITCZ is south of the equator. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds, except across the area from 26N to 29N between 115W and 120W where scatterometer data and a pair of ship observations indicate NW winds of 20 to 25 kt. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds, and 6 to 8 ft elsewhere W of Baja California. Satellite derived wind data also provide observations of fresh to strong winds over the northern Gulf of California while mainly fresh winds are noted across the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are elsewhere across the offshore Mexican waters. For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to diminish across the offshore waters of Baja California tonight into Tue, as the above mentioned high pressure dissipates ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the northern forecast water late on Tue. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected across most of the Gulf of California through late Tue morning as a strong high pressure settles over the Great Basin of the United States. The cold front will enter the Baja California Norte waters Wed and move into the northern Gulf of California Wed night. Strong to near gale force SW winds are likely over the northern Gulf of California in advance of the front Wed night into Thu. At the same time, fresh to strong NW winds are expected west of Baja California Norte behind the front. Large NW swell will return to the Baja California Norte offshore waters by late Thu in the wake of the front. A brief gap wind event is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed night and Thu as a ridge develops across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area continues to sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds in Gulf of Papagayo region, and downwind to 89W. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent in the rest of the forecast waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds are forecast in the Papagayo region mainly at night through Wed, then afterward strong winds are expected most of the time as high pressure builds N of the area. Seas of 6-7 ft are expected mainly at night before Wed, then 7-9 ft by Wed. Fresh N winds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama beginning Tue night through the forecast period, with building seas of 6 to 8 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama late in the work week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Long period SW swell will propagate across the offshore forecast waters through much of the work-week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Recent scatterometer data show fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 125W. The combination of the NW swell and the shorter period NE to E trade wind swell is producing combined seas of 8-10 ft across most of the area west of 110W. The exception is the NW corner of the forecast region area, north of 26N and west of 125W, where a high pressure has gentle winds. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in that area. E of 110W, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas generally in the 4 to 7 ft range between 95W and 110W. For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to diminish across the waters W of 110W over the next couple of days. A new cold front will enter the forecast region late on Tue, and move across the north waters through late Wed or Wed night while weakening. A significant swell event will follow the front building seas to 8 to 12 ft N of 26N W of 120W by Wed night. This swell event will dominate much of the waters N of 20N and W of 115W by Fri morning. At this time, seas are expected to be below 12 ft. $$ GR