000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271543 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Mar 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N98W. The ITCZ continues from 05N98W to 05N120W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 108W and 112W, and from 04N to 07N between 120W and 134W. A second and active ITCZ is south of the equator. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The combination of a 1028 mb high pressure centered just N of the area 31N131W and lower pressures over northern Mexico is leading to fresh to locally strong NW winds over the waters west of Baja California, from Cabo San Lazaro northward. Moderate winds are south of Cabo San Lazaro to the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere offshore Mexico, except for moderate to fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California. Large NW swell of 9 to 11 ft is still impacting the waters off Baja California. A satellite altimeter pass confirmed these seas. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft are occurring N of 17N W of 110W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere across the offshore Mexican waters. For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish across the offshore waters of Baja California this afternoon, as high pressure dissipates ahead of the next low pressure system moving toward California. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft everywhere in Mexican waters by late Tue. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NW winds will develop over the Gulf of California late this morning and then diminish by Tue. A cold front will enter the Baja California Norte waters Wed and move into the northern Gulf of California Wed night. Strong to near gale force SW winds are likely over the northern Gulf of California in advance of the front Wed night into early Thu. At the same time, fresh to strong NW winds are expected west of Baja California Norte behind the front. Large NW swell will return to the Baja California Norte offshore waters by late Thu in the wake of the front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area continues to sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds in Gulf of Papagayo region, and downwind to 89W. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent in the rest of the forecast waters. For the forecast, strong easterly gap winds will pulse nightly across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of southern Nicaragua through at least Fri night. Seas of 6-7 ft are expected each night, but will build to 8-9 ft mid to late week in this area. Fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama nightly beginning Tue night through the forecast period, with building seas downwind of the Gulf of Panama late in the work week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Long period SW swell should reach the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador tonight and then last through much of the remainder of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds prevail north of the ITCZ particularly from 06N to 24N and west of 122W. The combination of the NW swell and the shorter period NE to E trade wind swell is producing combined seas of 8-11 ft across most of the area west of 110W. The exception is the NW corner of the forecast area, north of 24N and west of 130W, where a high pressure has gentle winds. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in that area. South of 15N and east of 110W, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas decrease from about 8 ft near 115W to near 4 ft just W of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, the large swell over open waters will gradually subside through Tue, when it will be confined mainly to a 8-10 ft trade wind swell from the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. The area of fresh trades will also shrink slightly in areal extent from the ITCZ to 14N and west of 130W by Tue. Seas north of 22N will also continue to subside through early Tue. A new cold front will enter the area Tue, extend from 30N122W to 26N134W to 27N140W by early Wed, and from 30N118W to 24N130W to 24N140W by Wed evening. Large N swell associated with the front will move across the northern waters late Wed through Thu, then gradually subside as it moves southward Fri. $$ GR