000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270924 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Mar 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 05N96W. The ITCZ extends from 05N96W to 05N120W to 04N125W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 124W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The combination of a 1031 mb high pressure centered NW of the area near 34N130W and lower pressures over northern Mexico is leading to fresh to locally strong NNW winds over the waters west of Baja California, from Cabo San Lazaro northward. A recent ASCAT satellite wind data pass confirms these winds. Moderate winds are south of Cabo San Lazaro to the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere offshore Mexico, except for moderate NW winds over the Gulf of California. Large NW swell of 9 to 11 ft is still impacting the waters off Baja California. A satellite altimeter pass from 27/0500 UTC confirms these seas. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft are occurring west of 110W. Seas are 3-4 ft in the southern Gulf of California and 1-3 ft in the N Gulf. Seas east of 105W are mainly in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northerly winds will continue through early this morning in the offshore waters of Baja California before diminishing to moderate to locally fresh this afternoon. Large NW swell will continue to impact these waters through this morning. Winds and seas will gradually diminish this afternoon, as high pressure dissipates ahead of the next low pressure system moving toward California. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft everywhere in Mexican waters by late Tue. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NNW winds will develop over the Gulf of California this morning and then diminish by Tue. A cold front will enter the Baja California Norte waters Wed and move into the northern Gulf of California Wed night. Strong to near gale force SW winds are likely over the northern Gulf of California in advance of the front Wed night into early Thu. At the same time, fresh to strong NW winds are expected west of Baja California Norte behind the front. Large NW swell will return to the Baja California Norte offshore waters by late Thu in the wake of the front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area continues to sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds in Gulf of Papagayo waters, extending westward to 88W, according to recent ASCAT data. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent in the rest of the forecast waters. For the forecast, strong easterly gap winds will pulse nightly across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of southern Nicaragua through at least Fri night. Seas of 6-7 ft are expected each night, but will build to 8-9 ft mid to late week in this area. Fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama nightly beginning Tue night through the forecast period, with building seas downwind of the Gulf of Panama late in the work week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Moderate long period SSW swell should reach the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador tonight and then last through much of the remainder of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large NNW swell is propagating over the open waters of the tropical Pacific. Fresh to locally strong NE to ENE trade winds prevail across a large area north of the ITCZ from 06N to 24N and west of 122W. The combination of the NNW swell and the shorter period NE to E trade wind swell is producing combined seas of 8-11 ft across most of the area west of 115W. The exception is the NW corner of the TAFB forecast area, north of 26N and west of 129W, where a high pressure ridge has gentle winds. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in that area. South of 15N and east of 110W, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas decrease from about 8 ft near 115W to near 4 ft just W of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, the large swell over open waters will gradually subside through Tue, when it will be confined mainly to a 8-10 ft trade wind swell from the ITCZ to 22N and west of 120W. The area of fresh trades will also shrink slightly in areal extent from the ITCZ to 22N and west of 125W by Tue. Seas north of 22N will also continue to subside through early Tue. A new cold front will enter the area Tue, extend from 30N122W to 26N134W to 27N140W by early Wed, and from 30N118W to 24N130W to 24N140W by Wed evening. Large N swell associated with the front will move across the northern waters late Wed through Thu, then gradually subside as it moves southward Fri. $$ Hagen