000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270336 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Mar 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N84W to 05N93W to 05N95W. The ITCZ extends from 05N95W to 06N115W to 04N125W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 123W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The combination of a 1030 mb high pressure centered NW of the area near 37N130W and lower pressures over northern Mexico is leading to fresh NNW winds of the waters west of Baja California, from Cabo San Lazaro northward. Moderate winds are south of Cabo San Lazaro to the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere offshore Mexico, expect for moderate NW winds noted in the southern and central Gulf of California. Large NW swell is still impacting the waters off Baja California. A satellite altimeter pass from 26/1800 UTC showed that combined seas were up to 13 ft in the vicinity of 118W, between 25.5N and 27N. These seas have likely subsided to about 12 ft since that time. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft are occurring west of 110W. Seas are 3-4 ft in the southern Gulf of California and 1-2 ft in the N Gulf. Seas east of 105W are mainly in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northerly winds will continue tonight in the offshore waters of Baja California. Large NW swell will also impact these waters through tonight. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Mon afternoon, as the high pressure dissipates ahead of the next low pressure system moving toward California. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft everywhere in Mexican waters by late Tue. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NNW winds will develop over the Gulf of California Mon and diminish by Tue. Looking ahead, large swell will return to Baja California Norte offshore waters by late Thu associated with the remnants of the low pressure north of the area. Fresh to strong winds are also possible Wed night through Thu across the waters offshore Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area continues to sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds in Gulf of Papagayo waters, extending westward to 89W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent in the rest of the forecast waters. For the forecast, strong easterly gap winds will pulse nightly across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of southern Nicaragua tonight through at least Fri night. Seas of 6-7 ft are expected each night, but will build to 8-9 ft mid to late week in this area. Fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama nightly Tue night through Fri night, with building seas late in the work week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large NNW swell is propagating over the open waters of the tropical Pacific. Fresh NE to ENE trade winds prevail across a large area north of the ITCZ from 07N to 26N and west of 120W. The combination of the NNW swell and the shorter period NE to E trade wind swell is producing combined seas of 8-12 ft across most of the area west of 115W. The exception is the NW corner of the TAFB forecast area, north of 27N and west of 130W, where a high pressure ridge has gentle winds. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in that area. South of 15N and east of 115W, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas decrease from about 8 ft near 115W to near 4 ft just W of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, large swell over open waters will gradually subside through Tue, when it will be confined mainly to a 8-10 ft trade wind swell from the ITCZ to 22N and west of 120W. The area of fresh trades will also shrink in areal extent from the ITCZ to 22N and west of 125W by Tue. Seas north of 22N will also continue to subside through early Tue. A new cold front will enter the area Tue, extend from 30N121W to 26N130W to 26N140W by early Wed, and from 30N120W to 23N130W to 24N140W by Wed evening. Large N swell associated with the front will move across the northern waters late Wed through Thu, then gradually subside as it moves southward Fri. $$ Hagen